The Philadelphia Phillies are a very fortunate team right now. That might seem weird to say for a club which is 25-29 through 54 games — exactly one-third of its season, a 75-win pace — but that's the reality for the defending National League champions. The Phillies are one year removed from their run to the World Series. The level of play they attained last October made them a legitimate preseason contender, but they certainly haven't played like it with the exception of a few brief hot streaks. Manger Rob Thomson was exactly what the Phillies needed one year ago. He came aboard near this point in the season and got the team turned around after replacing Joe Girardi. However, as May ends in 2023, the results haven't been there. Why are the Phillies so lucky, then? It's simple: Other National League teams aren't taking advantage of Philadelphia's woes. They aren't burying the Phils in the standings. The Mets — the team the Phillies play on Wednesday in Queens, New York — are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the second and third National League wild card spots. Their record: 28-27. The Phillies are four games under .500 two months into the season, and they're just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. That's a stroke of good luck.
The Phillies are right in the hunt. They're not 10 games out of a playoff spot. They just need to play better baseball. We'll see if they can do so against the Mets on Wednesday.
Here are the Phillies-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+140)
New York Mets: +1.5 (-170)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Mets
TV: Comcast-NBC Sports Philadelphia (Phillies) / SNY (Mets) / MLB Network (National)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/4:10 p.m. PT
*Watch Phillies-Mets LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have Aaron Nola on the mound. While he is not relentlessly consistent, he does have a high ceiling. We saw how good he could be in the playoffs last October when he smothered the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves in his first two starts. Yes, his limitations were laid bare against the San Diego Padres in the National League Championship Series, but Nola is still a high-end arm who can dominate when everything is clicking. Given how inconsistent the Mets have been at the plate this season, there's a very good chance that Nola can control this game and limit New York's offensive output. Since Carlos Carrasco — not one of the Mets' best starters — is taking the bump for the home team in this game, the Phillies clearly have the edge in the pitching matchup. That's why they're favored.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets have gotten off to a great start in this series. Their 2-0 win over Philly on Tuesday behind Kodai Senga will give this team a shot in the arm. New York is going to be the more confident team when it takes the field for this game. Winning on a night when their sluggish and generally unreliable offense struggles to score should give the Mets a big boost.
The Phillies have been an immensely disappointing team through one-third of the season. The Phillies have a bunch of prodigious power hitters, but they don't put the ball in play often enough, and they don't hit well enough with two outs and runners in scoring position. The Mets can definitely frustrate them and get some runs off Nola if the Philadelphia starter is not on top of his game, which happens a fair amount of the time.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
Stay away from this game. The Phillies have the pitching edge, but they're not playing good baseball.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5