The Boston Red Sox take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Check out our MLB odds series for our Red Sox Pirates prediction and pick.
Josh Winckowski goes to the hill for the Red Sox, while J.T. Brubaker gets the call for the Pirates.
Josh Winckowski has a 4.69 ERA. He made his season debut with the Red Sox on May 28 and became part of the regular starting rotation on June 15. He pitched to a 2.12 ERA in three June starts, but then hitters got more tape on him and adjusted in July. Winckowski posted an ERA of over six runs for that month. In August, Winckowski has made two starts and shown some improvement, pitching 10 2/3 innings and allowing four runs, a 3.38 ERA for those two appearances. Does that mean he will be able to sustain such a level of performance for the rest of August and, for that matter, the season? The Pirates are not a particularly imposing team at the plate, so Winckowski should certainly expect to pitch five to six innings and not allow more than two runs.
J.T. Brubaker has a 4.45 ERA. He pitched to a 2.63 ERA in May, by far his best month of the season, but for most of the year, he has been a four-run pitcher, more or less. He got shredded in his first three starts of the season in April. He found some stability in May but regressed in June. One thing to note about his June and July starts is that he occasionally managed to produce a scoreless outing. He provided one clean scoreline in both June and July. Who were the opponents in those games? The Cubs and Marlins. One can go through his games this year and arrive at the conclusion that a reasonably good hitting team with some degree of balance in its batting order should get at least three runs against him in five or six innings of work. Brubaker's ERA isn't higher than it is because he has been able to do reasonably well against weaker hitting teams.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Red Sox-Pirates MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Pirates Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+114)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-137)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
They have Kike Hernandez back in the lineup. They are a better team than the Pirates. J.T. Brubaker is not good enough to smother them. Those are the three central reasons to take Boston. Beyond that, the Red Sox are in a playoff chase and have the urgency of knowing they need to mop up against inferior teams. When the Red Sox play the American League East, they are going to lose their share of games, so they have to be near-perfect against weaker opponents if they want to have any real shot in the wild card hunt. Everyone in the Boston dugout knows this. It's a great motivator and a good reason to go with the Red Sox in Pittsburgh.
Why The Pirates Could Cover the Spread
Josh Winckowski is an attackable starting pitcher. He certainly isn't in the same class as Michael Wacha or the other high-end arms the Red Sox have. Brubaker doesn't have to be spectacular to win this game. He just needs to be decent. The Red Sox don't have airtight pitching, and that could certainly leave them vulnerable against the Pirates.
Final Red Sox-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Red Sox are virtually in a must-win situation, and they are getting healthier. Playing the Pirates is a situation set up for success.
Final Red Sox-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Red Sox -1.5
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