The Milwaukee Brewers enter July as one of six MLB teams with 50 wins and a firm lead in the National League Central. Four weeks until the MLB trade deadline, the Brewers are expected to make several moves to improve their roster for the second half.
Milwaukee is typically an active franchise in the trade market, swapping deals involving All-Stars and top prospects from multiple teams. Despite their place in the standings, they might not be as aggressive in adding impact players as some might think.
The Brewers have an obvious need in their pitching staff with their starting rotation struggling to produce quality outings. While Milwaukee will probably trade for a few arms, a blockbuster involving some of its top prospect capital is not expected to happen, per The Athletic.
The Brewers are banking on some of their injured pitchers to return within the month and become effective players. Milwaukee has eight pitchers on their 40-man roster currently on the injured list. The Brewers used 30 pitchers through 84 games.
Among those on the shelf are closer Devin Williams, veteran starter Joe Ross and left-hander DL Hall. Maybe it's risky for the Brewers to bank on all three to return to form, but they've built their success in recent years on pitching and finding ways to get the most out of their arms.
Perhaps more importantly, Milwaukee is keen on keeping its farm system as strong as possible, rarely parting with top prospects. Getting through another trade deadline feeling like the club improved without losing promising minor leaguers would go down as a win in the minds of the Brewers front office.
Brewers pitching by the numbers
The Brewers consistently have one of the best pitching staffs in the league but their starters have not lived up to that billing this season. Milwaukee's bullpen masks much of the team's problems on the pitching side, but the Brewers can’t ignore the numbers for much longer.
Milwaukee's starters rank 18th with a 4.21 ERA following four seasons in which they finished in the top 12. Only the 30-win Miami Marlins have fewer quality starts than the Brewers as Milwaukee's starters rank 29th in innings.
The Brewers' rotation is not very valuable in 2024 either, producing a 3.3 fWAR that ranks 26th in the league.
The bullpen is a different story even without its All-Star closer. Brewers relievers have a collective 3.14 ERA this year, good enough for fourth in the MLB. They've done a fantastic job covering for Williams' absence, particularly Trevor Megill with his 1.71 ERA and team-leading 17 saves. Eight different Brewers pitchers have recorded a save this season.
Though Milwaukee's depth is unquestionable, it has been and will be tested further in 2024. All those early-season innings for the bullpen could come back to haunt the Brewers in September or even worse, in the playoffs.
It's ok for the Brewers to be optimistic and confident in what they already have but standing pat at the trade deadline would not go over well with the fanbase. General manager Matt Arnold has to work the phones to add a few quality innings-eaters and swing guys who can be versatile in the rotation and bullpen. If not, It's hard to see the Brewers sustaining a six and a half game lead in the division.