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Well, it looks like the National League playoffs are shaping up as expected. The annual bash is hosting its usual guests, with the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers already being seated in a prime spot near the front of all the action. They command the room, but the Philadelphia Phillies just arrived on the scene fashionably late and have the potential to be the life of the party for the second straight year. And there are the Mil…..Wait a minute, who let the Arizona Diamondbacks in here?
Torey Lovullo and his scrappy squad have just leaped over the red velvet rope and are looking to crash this October soiree. Although the Milwaukee Brewers were by no means a Goliath, they possessed the postseason experience and pitching prowess to stifle the unpredictable D-backs. But that's the thing about an unpredictable team– it can be quite dangerous.
Arizona overcame early deficits in both games of the National League Wild Card Series, as Lovullo pushed all the right buttons with his vastly overachieving bullpen. That resilience and managerial savvy must not only continue but be multiplied in the NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
There is a definite disparity in star power in this NL West showdown. LA boasts at least three future Hall of Famers. The D-backs' best player is a rookie, a superb rookie, to be clear, but a rookie nonetheless. Sometimes, though, players come of age in the MLB playoffs, and afterthoughts become big-game heroes. Arizona is a fine candidate to obtain that magical formula.
Let's dig a little deeper into this intriguing matchup. Here are 3 bold predictions for the Diamondbacks' NLDS meeting with the Dodgers.
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3. Diamondbacks find success vs. Dodgers' bullpen
If this prediction was made three months ago, it would not be considered bold at all. LA owned one of the worst relief units in the league around June but ended the year with one of the most reliable ones. The pitching staff has gotten slightly healthier and is bringing the hammer down late in games. But the Diamondbacks have the right blend of power and situational hitting to transport the Dodgers back to the first half of the regular season.
That mission starts with Corbin Carroll. The expected NL Rookie of the Year hit a scorching .571 versus the Brewers in the NLWCS with one home run and two RBIs. While he did struggle against LA pitching in 2023, the 23-year-old has rapidly developed in his inaugural big-league season. Carroll is clearly a special talent (.285 batting average, 25 home runs, 54 stolen bases, 10 triples), as MLB's X post below illustrates, but what makes him a true standout is his composure. He has a feel for the moment.
Corbin Carroll becomes the first rookie in AL/NL history to hit 25 home runs and steal 50 bases. pic.twitter.com/M8CEGYcMRq
— MLB (@MLB) September 20, 2023
If the Dodgers continue to keep the All-Star left fielder in check, however, then there should be multiple guys ready to enjoy their own October triumphs. Ketel Marte might never regain his incredible 2019 form, but he reestablished himself as a key hitter with a strong 2023 campaign (25 homers, 82 RBIs and nine triples). He and first baseman slugger Christian Walker are the veterans on this club who must step up.
Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol are as dominant a one-two punch as you will find in these playoffs, but the D-backs can do damage before Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hands the game over to his top relievers. Caleb Ferguson can be hit and Ryan Brasier is far streakier than he has shown thus far in LA. Besides, it might just take one rocky start to throw off the Dodgers' bullpen.
2. Merrill Kelly wins Game 1 of NLDS
Sweeping the Brewers allows Lovullo to go with a fresh Merrill Kelly at Dodger Stadium in Saturday night's NLDS Game 1. That one adjustment, which this group diligently earned, could be a crucial difference-maker in the round.
Though, it only works in Arizona's favor if the veteran right-hander is able to do something he has never done before– record a win versus the Dodgers. Kelly pitched an abbreviated outing that his team won in the season opener but could not will the Diamondbacks to victory on the following three occasions.
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He was solid in April, brilliant in early-August but got shelled in his last start against LA a little over one month ago. Kelly surrendered seven runs on 12 hits in five innings of work in the very same place he is taking the hill this weekend. So why the confidence? This ground ball specialist does not tend to make the same mistakes twice.
Neutral baseball fans would probably be surprised to learn that Kelly actually earned a superior ERA (3.29) than All-Star Zac Gallen, one that ranked inside the top 10 in MLB. He achieved a career high in strikeouts with 187 and is not overly prone to the long ball.
With Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith at the top of the lineup, LA can beat you in a variety of ways. Limiting its offense is obviously going to be a grueling task. That being said, this late bloomer has been one of the most trustworthy hurlers in the league since 2022. Kelly gives Arizona a golden opportunity to start the series on a high note.
1. Diamondbacks pull off huge upset over Dodgers
Assuming Merrill Kelly can set the tone on Saturday, then the No. 6 seed in the NL will be running with amazing momentum. I believe it will be enough to carry the D-backs into their first NLCS since 2007.
Since Corbin Carroll is already serving as the face of the franchise, it is easy to misconstrue Arizona as a wide-eyed, youthful group. But the squad ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of average age and gets a big veteran boost from guys like Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Evan Longoria. The longtime third baseman has already made big plays in the 2023 postseason, via MLB Now, and is a calming presence in the clubhouse.
Evan Longoria turned back the clock on defense in Game 1!
Here are your Baseball-y Plays from the Wild Card round ⬇️ #MLBNow pic.twitter.com/XV59RfltFX
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) October 5, 2023
While the makeup of the roster is obviously important, the Diamondbacks have the necessary level of aggression, guts and adherence to fundamentals to overcome the Dodgers' talent advantage. They strike out sparingly, steal bases at a high rate and play excellent defense (least amount of errors in MLB with 56). That style of play, an imposing duo in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly and a peaking bullpen led by Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel all combine to create the perfect storm for LA.
Vanquishing a Dodgers team that usually dispatches of divisional competition (last year not withstanding) probably cannot be done in less than five games. A rowdy atmosphere with unimaginable pressure can stifle the Diamondbacks and cruelly end this epic underdog tale before it gets to be properly written.
Or, it can engulf the Los Angeles Dodgers, once again. I believe these Snakes will slither their way past logical expectations and paralyze baseball's most enduring powerhouse with a bite far more venomous than many people realize.
