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For most conferences outside of the SEC and Big Ten conferences, championship Saturday has finally arrived! The Mountain West has been one of the better top to bottom basketball conferences this season, and the grand finale between the San Diego State Aztecs and the Boise State Broncos should not disappoint! Let’s get this show on the road with our college basketball odds series, and the SDSU-Boise State prediction and pick!
The Broncos enter the Mountain West Championship game defeating conference enemies such as Nevada and Wyoming, with the latter most likely heading into the NCAA tournament, which strengthens Boise State’s resume and gives them a chance at a higher seed throughout the big dance. Boise State will be an automatic bid regardless of their outcome on Saturday afternoon, winning the conference tournament in the Sin City will be the icing on the cake. BSU’s regular season record stands at 26-7 (15-3).
San Diego State arguably had their hands full against a really good Colorado State team that actually finished conference play with a better league record, but Vegas never fails to increase the theatrical effect on each team’s play, thus resulting in the Aztecs downing the Rams 63-58. SDSU went 23-7 (13-4) which was good for a third-place finish in the Mountain West standings.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the SDSU-Boise State Mountain West Championship odds:
Mountain West Championship Odds: SDSU-Boise State Odds
San Diego State: -2.5 (-110)
Boise State: +2.5 (-110)
Over: 118.5 (-110)
Under: 118.5 (-110)
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Why San Diego State Could Cover the Spread
To begin, the Aztecs’ pace of play is as slow as molasses, but it’s no doubt effective against 2021-2022 opponents with SDSU only allowing 57.8 PPG. The number three seed in the tournament and seeking their sixth Mountain West championship title, San Diego State has been the cream of the crop of the conference for more than a few years now. In the Aztecs hard fought win during their battle with Colorado State, at least five Aztecs scored at least eight points, trading blows against CSU and providing much-needed support in critical moments down the stretch. Senior guard Trey Pulliam led all Aztec scorers with 11 points on 4/8 shooting while dishing out six assists.
The Aztecs are no stranger in covering the spread, as they are 17-13 ATS on the season and are even a more awe-inspiring 6-2 ATS during their last eight games as a favorite. SDSU’s biggest playmaker is another fellow guard in Matt Bradley, who shoots an impressive 41.4% clip from deep and is lethal in finding creative ways to get to the basket. The obvious calling card of SDSU is their defensive effectiveness as they are the 19th best team in the country under that category. The Aztecs are below average on offense, as they are only averaging 66.5 PPG. The defense will have to provide scoring opportunities in order to cover the spread against a very good Broncos group.
Why Boise State Could Cover the Spread
The Boise State Broncos stampeded onto the scene in 2021-2022 and are playing for a chance at their first ever opportunity to bring home the bacon and call themselves not Mountain West Conference Tournament Champions. Boise State also has the regular-season title under wraps and one last win in Las Vegas would no question boost their credibility in the eyes of the selection committee team. Ironically, both Boise State and SDSU nearly mirror each other in almost every facet of the game other than the fact that the Broncos are considerably better offensively than their Mountain West counterparts.
This is a clear advantage, and with both teams being slow-paced squads, hitting open shots and finding the cutters to the basket will be vital. Even more assuring for you avid betters out there is that the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games, a positive sign for those wanting to throw a little extra money on Boise State’s championship chances.
Final SDSU-Boise State Prediction & Pick
It is hard to ignore the cold, hard facts that are presented before us in this Mountain West final, and even though San Diego State is the favorite, the value is worth siding with the Broncos because of their better production on the offensive end of the court. It will be close, but it would be wise to give the Broncos the slight edge.
Final SDSU-Boise State Pick: Boise State +2.5