The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Talladega this week for the YellaWood 500 and the next step in the chase for the NASCAR Playoffs. It is time to continue our NASCAR odds series with a YellaWood 500 at Talladega prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Last week at Texas it was a race that was dominated by Kyle Larson. Larson controlled the race, leading a lot of the laps, but he would not finish the race and would leave it with car trouble, finishing 31st. This would give other drives room to take a win. William Byron took advantage of that. He would end up winning the race, with Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace finishing right behind him.
With the win, not only will Byron be moving on to the next round in the playoffs, but he has taken the top spot in the process. After this round, only the top eight drivers will be moving on. Currently, Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and Kurt Busch sit in the bottom spots and are in danger of elimination.
All will be looking for a win at Talladega this week. One of the most unpredictable tracks in the circuit. The superspeedway is a fast track and the largest oval in the circuit. Still, with all the space, racing is close, and passing happens all over the track. This leads to lots of lead changes, and lots of crashes. It also results in plenty of drifting and close finishes on the track.
Here are the NASCAR Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NASCAR Odds: YellaWood 500 Odds
Brad Keselowski: +1100
Ryan Blaney: +1100
Chris Buescher: +1200
Bubba Wallace: +1300
Chase Elliott: +1400
Denny Hamlin: +1400
William Byron: +1400
Joey Logano: +1400
Kyle Larson: +1600
Kyle Busch: +1800
Austin Cindric: +2000
Christopher Bell: +2000
Ross Chastain: +2000
Aric Almirola: +2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: +2000
Martin Truex Jr.: +2500
Kevin Harvick: +2500
Tyler Reddick: +2500
Erik Jones: +2700
Michael McDowell: +3000
Alex Bowman: +3000
Tyle Gibbs: +3000
Daniel Suraez: +3500
Chase Briscoe: +3500
How to Watch YellaWood 500
TV: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports
Time: 2:00 PM ET/ 11:00 AM PT
*Watch Nascar LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Favorites To Win YellaWood 500
Normally in a race, if someone has +1100 odds to win, they fall into the sleepers category, but at Talladega, that is the favorite. Brad Keselowski sits at the top of the board in this one at +1100. He is solid at Superspeedways, having the most points at these style tracks, and leading the most laps on them too. Keselowski has also been solid here. In the spring he finished fifth, while in the two races in 2021, he had a win and a runner-up finish. Overall, Keselowski has won at this track six times in 29 starts and has been in the top ten another eight times.
Ryan Blaney has also shown to be solid at this style of track. This year in five races on super speedways, his only finish outside the top ten is at Daytona. His last two goes at this track have been great as well. He has finished as the runner-up in both of them and led over 20 laps in each of the last three races here. Further, Blaney has won at this track twice in just 18 starts.
For third-slotted Chris Beucher to win, it will take a little luck. Last time out on this track he had one of his better races here, sitting third when the race ended. In 2022, he did not have that luck. In the first race of 2022, he crashed and finished just 56 laps. Then the second time out, he did not crash but fell victim to one. After leading a lap in the race, he ended up behind a crash and finished 25th. Beucher is a solid driver who has the skills to compete at a track like this but has not put together a full race here at Talladega.
Kyle Larson should always be mentioned as a favorite. He is one of the best drivers in the series and could win any race. He should have won last week, but his car failed him. Now, Larson will be looking to get his win this week. Talladega has been one of the few tracks Larson has struggled with in his career. In his last seven races, he has not finished four times. He did have one or two solid races in there, both in 2022. In both races, he led laps and finished the race. Still, in the first race he got fourth, but in the second, he dropped to 18th.
Sleepers To Win YellaWood 500
While many of the guys deeper down the board cannot advance in the playoffs, they are worth looking at. Alric Almirola starts that list. While struggling here as of late, he does have a solid history with this track. From 2016 to the first race of 20202, he finished in the top ten in each of the races. That includes a win in this race on this track in 2018. Meanwhile, he has led laps in four of the last six races here and has been in good positions. He may not be the best driver in the series, but he is good on superspeedways and should be watched out for.
Daniel Suraez is another one who should be watched out for. He was solid in both Atlanta and Daytona this year, showing he has the skills to race on this style of track. After struggling in his career at this track, he has been better in the last three races. In 2022 he led 28 laps before not finishing the race. Then in the second race of 2022, he led two laps and finished tenth. Last time here, he finished ninth after leading five laps. If someone from deep in the pack is going to break through, it could be Suarez.
YellaWood 500 Prediction & Pick
Talladega is the most unpredictable track on the circuit. It takes not only the skill to race this style of track but some good luck as well. The prediction for the YellaWood 500 is one of the 12 drivers still alive for the playoff race is going to win. Many of them do not have the pedigree to win here though. One driver does stand out over the rest though, and that is Ryan Blaney. He is good on superspeedways, and luck has gone his way a lot this year.
YellaWood 500 Prediction & Pick: Ryan Blaney (+1100)