The Phoenix Suns (19-14) visit the Denver Nuggets (20-11) in a Christmas Day matchup. Action tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Suns-Nuggets prediction and pick.

Phoenix enters Sunday's matchup after losing back-to-back home games but still sits in fourth place in the Western Conference. The Suns are 17-16 against the spread while 53% of their games have gone under. Denver, meanwhile, has won four of its last five to bump them into first place in the West. The Nuggets are 14-17 against the spread while 55% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of four meetings between the two teams. Last season, Phoenix took two of three games.

Here are the Suns-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NBA Odds: Suns-Nuggets Odds

Phoenix Suns: +3 (-108)

Denver Nuggets: -3 (-112)

Over: 231.5 (-110)

Under: 231.5 (-110)

Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread

The Suns have had an uncharacteristically inconsistent season despite their strong record. However, they remain one of the most well-rounded teams in the league when everything is clicking. Phoenix features an elite offense that ranks 10th in scoring and second in offensive rating. They're strong defensively, ranking ninth in points allowed and 11th in defensive rating. The Suns are also a solid rebounding team that ranks 12th in rebound differential and 11th in rebound rate.

Phoenix has struggled with star Devin Booker out with a groin injury. Booker is expected to return following a three-game absence and instantly boosts Phoenix's chance to cover. The last time Booker played, he was phenomenal, scoring 58 points while going 21-of-35 from the field. While he can't be expected to drop 50 in this one, it certainly wouldn't be out of the question. For the season he's averaging 28.0 points while shooting 47.7% from the field and was firmly in the MVP conversation prior to his injury. Booker is no stranger to success against the Nuggets. In his lone visit to Denver last season, Booker scored 49 points and dished out 10 assists to lead his team to a 10-point victory. His season-long production and previous success in Denver are worth considering before making a Suns-Nuggets prediction.

While Booker gives the Suns a huge boost, he won't fix all of their problems. The biggest area for concern is their ability to rebound. Phoenix was slaughtered on the glass in its loss to Memphis, 53-35. Denver is a similarly strong rebounding team, putting a lot of pressure on center Deandre Ayton to bounce back. Ayton has been solid this season overall, averaging 17.6 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 62.8% from the field. However, there has been underlying tension since the playoffs last year and that boiled over on Friday night. Ayton played just 21 minutes in the loss, but savvy bettors could see this as an opportunity to buy the dip now that the team has supposedly cleared the air.

Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread

Denver has shot up to the top of the Western Conference thanks to a consistent offense led by Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets rank eighth in scoring and third in offensive rating. They are vulnerable on the defensive end, however, ranking 17th in points allowed and 23rd in defensive rating. Denver makes up for it with its work on the glass, ranking fourth in rebound differential and fourth in rebound rate. The Nuggets will notably be without forward Jeff Green due to an injury.

The Nuggets are rolling right now as they are winners of six of their last seven games. A huge reason for that has been Jokic, who is starting to shoot more again. The back-to-back MVP started the season relatively passive by his standards, but across his last seven games, Jokic has upped his scoring average to 30.6 points (it's at just under 25 for the season) and is averaging a triple-double with 13.6 RPG and 10.4 APG. He's in a great spot to have another big night against a Phoenix team that just allowed a combined 48 points and 20 rebounds to Memphis' Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke.

Forward Michael Porter Jr. returned to action on Friday after missing over a month with an injury. The sharpshooter is an obvious X-factor thanks to the stress he puts on opposing defenses. He's shooting 42.2% from 3-point range this season and is a matchup nightmare at 6-foot-10. Jamal Murray is probable and should be good to go.

Final Suns-Nuggets Prediction & Pick

If this game had been played a week ago, it would be much closer to a pick 'em. I'm willing to throw out Phoenix's last two losses on the account of Booker's absence, and I like them to keep things close to close out the Christmas slate.

Final Suns-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns +3 (-108)