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We have you covered with our NBA awards odds series with a Central Division winner prediction and pick.
Last season was a two-team race at the top of the Central division between the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers. This season, oddsmakers expect more of the same with these teams as the clear favorites for division winner, with the Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, and Detroit Pistons trailing significantly behind.
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: 2023-24 Central Division Winner Odds
Milwaukee Bucks: -360
Cleveland Cavaliers: +260
Chicago Bulls: +3600
Indiana Pacers: +3600
Detroit Pistons: +25000
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Why The Bucks Will Win The Central
One of the most significant moves in NBA free agency over the last decade was the Bucks trade to go out and get Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers. This catapulted their odds to not only win the division but to win the Finals as well. A top ten team a season ago in three-point field goal percentage and three-pointers made per game got even better by adding Lillard as well as free agent sharpshooter Malik Beasley and second-round draft pick Andre Jackson Jr. Not only do they have one of, if not the best offense in the NBA, they also back it up with the most feared interior defense in the league.
Last season, they had two players (Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo) finish in the top six in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Having these two anchors alongside Bobby Portis makes this team the most complete in the league on both ends of the floor.
Why The Cavaliers Will Win The Central
Last year marked the best record for a non-Lebron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers team since the 1992-93 season. Led by Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers have finally found the secret to success without having James on the team. With elite guards like Mitchell and Darius Garland having dominant big men in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, they were able to run through teams with an explosive pick-and-roll last season. Ball handlers for the Cavs in pick-and-roll scenarios averaged the third most points per game off these plays with 20.6 points per game, on an impressive
It also helps that with the signing of Miami Heat playoff hero Max Strus and 3&D player Georges Niang, they now have reliable three-point shooting options on the wing. Not to mention Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert, this team has arguably the deepest roster in the league. With explosive scorers everywhere and two defensive player of the year candidates, the Cavaliers are ready to take the league over.
Why The Bulls Will Win The Central
With all the consistent roster turnover in the league today, lineup chemistry is the key to success. Last season, the lineup of Ayo Dosunmu, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams, and Nikola Vucevic was incredibly underrated. Of all the starting lineup combinations in the league, this lineup played in the second most games together at 48. Of the top 16 lineups that played in the most games together, these five had the second-highest three-point field goal percentage. Bringing in Jevon Carter to help with point guard duties will go a long way in assisting the other guards while Lonzo Ball recovers from his torn meniscus.
Although there has been a lot of speculation surrounding guys like LaVine, DeRozan, and Vucevic being traded and Chicago starting a rebuild, this team has a talented roster. With these All-Stars at the helm and an abundance of talented reserves, Chicago could be in line to shock some people.
Why The Pacers Will Win The Central
As the saying goes, defense wins championships. And the Indiana Pacers have one of the most intense defensive units in all basketball. Last season, they had the second-most total blocked shots in the league. With Myles Turner leading the way, averaging 2.3 blocks per game, the Pacers retain six guys who averaged 0.5 blocks or more per game. Additionally, the activity and pace at which this team operates are fun to watch. Among all teams, Indiana tied for the most loose balls recovered per game and ranked second in average miles traveled on defense per game with 8.7.
One of the biggest holes in the roster a season ago was the gap at the power forward position. Trading for Obi Toppin and drafting Jarace Walker go a very long way in filling this positional need. By bringing in high-energy guys like Toppin and Walker and NBA Champion Bruce Brown, the Pacers will retain the same defensive energy, which could lead them to a potential division win.
Why The Pistons Will Win The Central
After playing in only 12 games last season before being sidelined due to a shin injury, the importance of the return of Cade Cunningham cannot be overstated. The do-it-all point guard standing at 6'7″ was the missing piece Detroit needed to be competitive last season. Having him running point surrounded by guys like Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Marvin Bagley III, James Wiseman, and Jalen Duren gives this team the go-to ball distributor and facilitator they need. When people think of this team, they tend to gravitate toward the abundance of big men they have. However, this team tied for the league's fifth most points made from pull-up shots last season.
With Cunningham back, expect the wings to see a lot more open looks and for guards such as Ivey to flourish in off-ball activity. If they can maintain the same efficiency in pull-up shot scenarios combined with the development of their young big men, this team has the potential to contend in the division.
Final 2023-24 Central Division Winner Prediction & Pick
The Milwaukee Bucks begin the season as the overwhelming favorites to win the division. However, I expect it to take some time for Damian Lillard to fully fit into the system, and because that line is too steep, I will be taking the Cleveland Cavaliers. I think J.B. Bickerstaff and company will have a breakout year, and the Cavs will be one of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference at the end of the season.
Final 2023-24 Central Division Winner Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers (+260)
