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The second half of the 2020-21 NBA season officially began Wednesday night, with the Memphis Grizzlies throttling the Washington Wizards and the Dallas Mavericks outlasted the San Antonio Spurs.
The action really heats up Thursday, as 22 teams are in action. One such matchup will feature an Eastern Conference contender in Milwaukee taking on the upstart New York Knicks.
Milwaukee is third in the East entering the second half of the campaign, though the Bucks are third in the NBA in net rating. The Knicks have arguably been the surprise of the season thus far, rolling to a 19-18 mark. They are currently fifth in the East and could be a team to watch in advance of the March 25 trade deadline.
Which team will have the edge on Thursday night in Milwaukee? Let's take a closer look at some of the betting odds for Knicks-Bucks.
NBA Odds: Knicks-Bucks Odds
Knicks +10.5 points (-113)
Bucks -10.5 point (-107)
Over 223 points (-110)
Under 223 points (-110)
(All odds obtained via BetOnline.ag)
Why the Knicks could cover the spread
First of all, whoa.
Getting 10.5 points is pretty wild for a team that currently ranks first in defensive scoring and second in defensive rating.
Tom Thibodeau's team tries to wear opponents down and slow the game to a screeching halt. The Knicks rank last in the NBA in pace, forcing teams to operate in the half-court and try to dictate the tempo. That formula has clearly paid dividends early, as New York finds itself squarely in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
The Knicks come out of the break playing some good basketball. New York went 8-3 ahead of All-Star weekend, winning four of its last five. Granted, the majority of those wins came against sub-.500 opponents, but you can only play the team in front of you.
So, the Knicks come into this one with a good deal of confidence. It stands to reason they will buy into the style clash, and perhaps seek more three-point opportunities.
The Bucks rank fifth in the NBA in pace. They are at their best when they can get out and run, with Giannis Antetokounmpo making plays in transition and shooters running to their spots on the wings.
Milwaukee also plays fast to try to allow Giannis to get downhill more often and force help defenders to collapse, leading to open shots for a team currently ranked fourth in the NBA in three-point percentage. But the Knicks run teams off the line and into the painted area, where guys like Nerlens Noel await slashers.
On the flip side, the Bucks give up a lot of threes. While the Knicks do not shoot from the outside, backcourt players like Alec Burks and Immanuel Quickley can get hot. Julius Randle can also stretch the floor, possibly forcing Giannis to abandon the rim and allowing guys like R.J. Barrett to attack downhill.
Another thing to keep in mind: the Knicks beat the Bucks by 20 back in December at the start of the season. A lot has changed since then, but it's something to keep in mind.
Why the Bucks could cover the spread
Well, that blowout win from the start of the season could well motivate the Knicks. Conversely, it could galvanize the Bucks.
Milwaukee is playing some pretty good basketball of its own entering the second half. The Bucks won six of their last seven entering All-Star weekend, albeit (like the Knicks) against slightly underwhelming competition.
Typically, Milwaukee's offense sets the tone. That certainly needs to be the case early against the Knicks, as the Bucks should try to get out and run from the opening tip. But the defensive effort will be every bit as important, and the “Greek Freak” could hold the keys in that regard.
Antetokounmpo will more than likely shadow Randle for the majority of the contest. Although Randle's ability to shoot the three might force Giannis to come out and guard on the perimeter, Antetokounmpo could well neutralize his ability to be a playmaker and shot creator.
That would be bad news for the Knicks, a team already without reliable shot creators. Barrett will likely have his hands full with Jrue Holiday, and the Knicks will also be without Derrick Rose, who is sidelined because of health and safety protocols.
Milwaukee should also be able to minimize New York's impact in the rebounding battle. The Bucks ranks first in total rebounding and defensive rebounding, as well as being a top-10 team on the offensive glass. They will contest everything defensively and hunt second chances on the other end of the floor.
One final thing of note: Milwaukee is 14-5 at home, as compared to 8-9 on the road.
A 10.5 spread is a lot to cover. But the Bucks can get their second half off to a nice start and make a statement with a blowout win over the Knicks.
Final prediction and pick for Knicks-Bucks
This almost feels like a trap game. The spread practically necessitates picking the Knicks.
But my guess is head coach Mike Budenholzer and Antetokounmpo will have the Bucks hungry to get off to a fast start and set the tone for the second half of the season.
New York will try to slow things down, but Milwaukee has too many scoring options and is equally capable of banging down low.
FINAL PREDICTION & PICK FOR KNICKS-BUCKS: NYK 104, MIL 118 (MIL -10.5)
