The New York Knicks (18-17) visit the San Antonio Spurs (11-23) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Knicks-Spurs prediction and pick.
New York has lost four straight games but still sits in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks cover at a 54% rate while 50% of their games have gone over the projected point total. San Antonio has lost three of their last four games to drop them to 14th place in the Western Conference. The Spurs cover at a 41% rate while 55% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of two games between the teams this season. Last year, New York took both games in the series by double-digits.
Here are the Knicks-Spurs NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Knicks-Spurs Odds
New York Knicks: -5 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs: +5 (-110)
Over: 226 (-110)
Under: 226 (-110)
Why The Knicks Could Cover The Spread
While New York has lost four consecutive games, they've gotten pretty unlucky. Each loss has come within seven points, with the most recent L to Dallas in one of the most miraculous finishes in recent memory. While the recent losses hurt, an injury to RJ Barrett is arguably a most brutal loss than what has happened in the box score. With Barrett joining Obi Toppin on the sidelines and point guard Jalen Brunson banged up, New York finds itself thin entering the most important stretch of the season.
Forward Julius Randle has been spectacular this season, but he'll need to take things up a notch tonight if his team wants to cover the spread. Randle leads New York in scoring (23.2 PPG) and rebounding (9.6 RPG). He's a skilled playmaker for a big man as he averages 3.6 assists per game. Despite increased defensive attention, Randle continues to be efficient from the field where he shoots 47%. He also finds himself in the most prolific three-point shooting season of his career. While Randle shoots just 34% from beyond the arc, he's averaging a career-high 2.5 made threes per game. San Antonio ranks near the bottom of every defensive metric – setting Randle up for a huge night as the unquestioned first option.
Randle won't be able to do it all on his own, however. He struggled last season against the Spurs. If that is the case again tonight the Knicks will need second-year guard Quentin Grimes to continue his strong play of late. Grimes bounces in and out of New York's starting lineup but will likely play a major role tonight with all of their injuries. He showed what he could do with extended minutes in their last game. Grimes drained seven threes en route to scoring 33 points in their loss to Dallas.
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
If San Antonio is going to cover tonight, they're going to have to improve their porous defense. San Antonio allows 120.5 points per game – the most in the league by a sizable margin. They are the only team in the league that allows opponents to shoot over 50% from the floor in addition to ranking last in opponent three-point percentage (39%). They've been brutal on that end of the floor but did shut down New York's leading scorer, Julius Randle, last season. In his two games against the Spurs, Randle scored just 8.5 PPG while shooting an abysmal 32% from the field. While the forward has been much better overall this year, his struggles against San Antonio are worth keeping in mind before making a Knicks-Spurs prediction.
Even if San Antonio has a strong defensive night, they'll need better outings from their leading scorers if they want to cover tonight. New York ranks in the top half of the league defensively – putting a lot of pressure on San Antonio's 24th-ranked offense to produce. That production starts with their young duo of Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell. Johnson leads the team with 20.9 PPG while shooting 42% from the field. Vassell is right behind him, averaging 19.6 PPG. Both players are capable three-point shooters as they each average over two made threes per game. Vassell in particular is a dead-eye from beyond the arc where he makes nearly three per game at a 40% clip. The Knicks allow the third-most three-point attempts per game – potentially setting the Spurs' guards up for a big night from deep.
Final Knicks-Spurs Prediction & Pick
Given New York's numerous injuries, I like San Antonio to keep things close tonight as home underdogs. The Spurs shut down Julius Randle last season and if they can continue that success they could even find themselves as outright winners.
Final Knicks-Spurs Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs +5 (-110)
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