Subscribe
Follow Us
The second half of the 2020-21 NBA season officially begins on Wednesday night, with the Washington Wizards taking on the Memphis Grizzlies. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Wizards-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
Things have not gone very smoothly for either franchise. The Wizards' roster was decimated early by injuries and COVID-19 issues. Not to mention, the team had to deal with endless scuttlebutt regarding a Bradley Beal trade, in spite of the fact Beal himself said he wanted to remain in D.C.
The Grizzlies are still missing Jaren Jackson Jr. and also had to navigate a stretch without reigning NBA Rookie of the Year Ja Morant. Memphis is 10th in the Western Conference and on the edge of the play-in tournament picture.
Still, both teams have reason for optimism heading into the second half. The Grizzlies are just one game back of the No. 8 seed, and the Wizards are 8-3 in their last 11 games.
Memphis and Washington will hope to get a win to start the second half. Which of the two teams has the best chance against the spread?
Let's take a look at the latest betting odds and make picks for Wizards-Grizzlies.
NBA Odds: Wizards-Grizzlies Odds
Wizards +3.5 points (-110)
Grizzlies -3.5 points (-110)
Over 237 points (-110)
Under 237 points (-110)
(All odds obtained via BetOnline.ag)
Why the Wizards could cover the spread
As previously mentioned, the Wizards enter the second part of the schedule with more confidence after a hot finish to the first half.
It is not as if Washington's wins came against lowly opponents, either. The list of teams the Wizards defeated in that 8-3 stretch includes the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers. Those are title contenders from both conferences.
The win against the Clippers on March 4 was especially encouraging. Beal had an off shooting night, but stayed aggressive in attacking the rim and getting to the foul line.
Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook was the perfect second fiddle. Brodie scored 27 points to go with 11 assists and nine rebounds. He committed just one turnover. The Wizards might have blown the Clippers out had Westbrook been better at the free-throw line, as he went just 7-for-15 from the charity stripe. Nevertheless, it was a big sign for Washington's two stars to have success while getting to the line and taking the ball to the rim.
Westbrook has quietly been one of Washington's top defensive playmakers in the last four games. That's a huge development for a team often desperate for takeaways and stops.
The Wizards are relentless in pushing the tempo and getting to the basket. They will get after it in Memphis, and both Beal and Westbrook will attack Dillon Brooks and Morant, both of whom are underwhelming on-ball defenders. Westbrook will need to knock down his free throws (19-for-38 in his last four games), but his constant attack could wear on Memphis' guards.
Here's another element to watch in the second half of Washington's season, in general: the rotating frontcourt.
Moritz Wagner has provided some defensive toughness inside, and head coach Scott Brooks also also finds ways to involve Alex Len and Robin Lopez. Moreover, Davis Bertans has gradually been finding his stroke from beyond the arc and is competing harder on the other end of the floor.
Article Continues Below
Bertans, Wagner and Deni Avdija will be important in their ability to space the floor a bit and force Memphis' bigs — especially Brandon Clarke — to abandon the paint every now and then.
Washington will play fast. If the backcourt can be efficient with the ball and they get contributions from the forwards off the bench, the Wizards have a good chance to come away victorious.
Why the Grizzlies could cover the spread
Memphis made light work of the Wizards last time out, beating the brakes off Washington in a a 125-111 victory on March 2.
Ja Morant was dominant in that game, going for 35 points, 10 assists and five rebounds. As aggressive as Westbrook has been lately, Morant was every bit as assertive in getting his offense. He went 11-for-14 from the free-throw line against the Wizards, then went 10-for-11 from the line in a one-point loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on March 4.
Despite Westbrook's aptitude for playing passing lanes and hunting the ball, he struggles to stay with quick guards and gets caught in pick-and-roll. Morant will once again go at him.
The biggest factor in Memphis' favor is its penchant for forcing turnovers. Opponents are averaging nearly 17 giveaways against the Grizzlies. That's good news as they prepare to square off against two high-usage and turnover-prone guys in Westbrook and Beal.
The Grizzlies hunt second opportunities, ranking fourth in the NBA in offensive rebounding. Clarke and Jonas Valanciunas are relentless on the offensive glass. They clean up Morant misses around the rim and give Memphis extra chances. Indeed, Clarke had three offensive boards in the win over Washington, while Valanciunas had four offensive boards and 16 total rebounds.
Memphis is also deep and tough at the forward spots, with the likes of Xavier Tillman and Justise Winslow also mixing it up on the boards.
There might be questions as to who will emerge as a more reliable scorer alongside Morant, given Dillon Brooks has been a bit inefficient as of late. Well, you can expect to see more Morant-Clarke pick-and-rolls resulting in easier buckets for Clarke, and De'Anthony Melton should exploit matchups against Washington's reserve guards.
Final Wizards-Grizzlies prediction and pick
The Grizzlies just aren't a good matchup for the Wizards.
Memphis has too much size, and the forwards are athletic types who can run in transition and bang down low. Morant and Co. are also perfectly capable at playing a fast tempo, so pace will not be much of a factor.
The Wizards will scratch and claw in this one, but that spread is a bit favorable to Memphis, particularly given how the last contest played out.
FINAL PREDICTION & PICK FOR GRIZZLIES-WIZARDS: MEM 122, WAS 114 (MEM -3.5)
