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Pump the brakes on this season definitely being Draymond Green's swan song with the Golden State Warriors.
Extensions signed by Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins on Saturday indeed complicate his future in the Bay, but it's not exactly shocking the Warriors staved off their pending free agencies first. Green made clear at Media Day he didn't expect a new contract from Golden State in 2022-23, acknowledging Poole was likely first in management's pecking order because he'd yet to accrue truly generation wealth in his young career.
Green, obviously, knows the league as well as anyone. He surely wasn't surprised the Warriors made Wiggins, a two-way wing right in the thick of his prime who played the best basketball of his career on the game's biggest stage, a contractual priority before a thirtysomething, undersized big with debilitating offensive limitations, either.
Much as Bob Myers tried publicly, Green's punch to Poole is impossible to separate from Golden State's approach to doling out extensions. There's a good chance the Warriors would've gotten deals done with Poole and Wiggins first regardless. But given the suddenly fraught nature of Golden State's title defense in wake of Green's violent outburst and debilitating financial realities beginning in 2023-24 that Joe Lacob has already insisted must be addressed, the writing sure seems on the wall for the four-time champion's future with the only team he's ever known.
Warriors beat reporter @armstrongwinter dives into the potential impact Jordan Poole's extension could have on Draymond Green's future in the Bay.https://t.co/7OYgxcXXIZ
— Warriors Nation (@WarriorNationCP) October 16, 2022
With Poole and Wiggins locked up long-term, the Warriors have approximately $211.9 million in committed salary for next season, including Green's $27.5 million player option but not Donte DiVincenzo's modest $4.7 million opt-in. Like Otto Porter before him, DiVincenzo will likely seek a more lucrative payday in free agency next summer if he rehabs his value in Golden State this season. The Warriors would have 11 players under contract in that scenario, leaving three open roster spots to be filled, probably by minimum contracts.
Golden State's repeater tax bill with total cap allocations coming in around $219 million? Just short of a whopping $284 million, good for a record total payroll of $503 million. Lacob, remember, drew a line in the sand on future spending this summer, telling Tim Kawakami of The Athletic in early July that $400 or $500 million on roster spending “is not even remotely possible.”
Much as fans want to believe otherwise following new deals for Poole and Wiggins, the latter of whom took a significant pay cut to remain in his new NBA home, nothing seems to have changed in that respect.
I talk to Warriors executives all of the time. Who tell me on and off the record that they're not taking a $100M loss next season, which is what would likely happen if the payroll commitment goes above $450M.
You talk to … ? Twitter People? https://t.co/q2KkI443cO
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) October 16, 2022
The easiest way for Golden State to put a major dent in its exorbitant projected tax bill for 2023-24? Parting ways with Draymond Green. Taking his player option off the books altogether would lower the Warriors' tax payout to just over $100 million, ensuring Lacob's payroll would fall around $300 million depending on how management decides to fill out the roster.
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Is Green really worth roughly $200 million to Golden State?
To be clear, that's an oversimplification of the circumstances that could inform his departure. It's tough to imagine Lacob breaking up Golden State's dynastic core if Green, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson repeat as champions in 2022-23, joining the incredibly exclusive club of teammates in NBA history—let alone players—with five rings. By contrast, the Warriors couldn't just cut him without financial penalty if Green picks up his player option after a disappointing season, and may have a difficult time offloading his salary via trade without taking money back or including draft asset sweeteners.
The prospect of Green, proud as he is, following Wiggins' lead by re-upping with the Warriors for much less than anticipated at least bears mentioning. Even a $17 million salary for Green next season, though, would vault Golden State's payroll comfortably past $400 million, and the always long-shot prospect of management moving James Wiseman to keep its “foundational six” intact while decreasing Lacob's tax hit seems even more implausible after the third-year big man showed out in preseason action.
Even another championship may not convince Lacob to take a single-season financial loss before the Warriors' books clear up and a major cap spike comes in 2025-26. Something has to change for Golden State next season, basically, and management is evidently not spooked by the optics of paying Poole and Wiggins big-money deals so soon after Green sparked the biggest internal crisis of the Steve Kerr era.
All momentum suggests 2022-23 could be Green's last dance with the Warriors. Lacob, a billionaire multiple times over, has pockets deep enough to ensure that's not the case. All good things come to an end eventually, though, and Golden State has been paving the way for its next generation of young players long before Green's vicious punch to Poole might have accelerated that timeline.
Appreciate Draymond Green while you can, Dub Nation. He could be gone this time next year.
[h/t Spotrac]
