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It's no secret that the Jimmy Butler trade saved the Golden State Warriors' season. Going 22-6 since Butler joined the team back in February, the Warriors are in a prime position to make a deep postseason run.
However, a huge part of the Warriors' success in the playoffs will depend on how the Western Conference playoff bracket shakes out. With seeds three to eight up for grabs, it's a mess to predict who the Warriors will matchup against in the opening rounds.
But the Warriors are a battle-tested, experienced team that knows the intricacies of a seven-game playoff series. Led by a surging Stephen Curry and DPOY-favorite Draymond Green, the Dubs will always have the 304 career playoff games to lean on when the going gets tough.
Add in the legendary “Playoff Jimmy” and the coaching brilliance of Steve Kerr, and the Warriors will always have the edge when it comes to experience. That leadership will be critical for a couple of Warriors players. The Dubs are relying heavily on the contributions of their young core, specifically Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga.
Podziemski's offense, in particular, has exploded since the addition of Butler. In the last 10 games, Podz is averaging 18.8 points on 51.4% shooting from beyond the arc. And Moody has become a reliable “3-and-D” wing for the Dubs, a far cry from his DNPs earlier this season.
Kuminga, on the other hand, is the Warriors' wild card. At his best, he gives the Warriors uber athleticism and explosiveness. At his worst, he muddies the offense and gets lost in the deep Dubs rotation. He is so key to raising Golden State's ceiling, especially in matchups where the Warriors are lacking in size and length.
Warriors' dream playoff scenarios
For the Warriors, the bare minimum of a dream playoff scenario is any scenario that involves them not playing in the dreaded play-in tournament.
Golden State has never gotten out of the play-in when forced to go through those extra games. But it's not even about the danger of playing for their season, it is more about losing the extra week of rest in between the regular season and the postseason. The Warriors are an older team, and an extra game or two comes with many risks. Injuries, fatigue, lack of prep–all of that spells a nightmare for the Warriors should they fall into the play-in.
But barring a date in the play-in, the Warriors have two dream matchups that they would be happy to get. The first is the Memphis Grizzlies. It's no secret that everyone in the West is looking to play them, especially after they've slid down to seventh in the last couple of weeks.
The Grizzlies are a very familiar opponent for the Warriors, so they'll know how to attack them. Without Dillon Brooks, the Grizzlies will rely on Scottie Pippen Jr. to slow down Curry. Jaylen Wells would have been part of that as well, but he suffered a gruesome injury against the Charlotte Hornets. Not to mention the fact that the Dubs always seem to exploit Jaren Jackson Jr.'s foul trouble habits, the Warriors wouldn't mind seeing a Grizzlies team without former head coach Taylor Jenkins.
The other dream matchup might come as a surprise, but the Denver Nuggets look very vulnerable. Sure, a month ago, it seemed like the Nuggets were serious Warriors' kryptonite. With the unstoppable Nikola Jokic outsizing every Warriors player in the interior, combined with the dominant win they had over the Dubs without him, they do seem like an unfavorable matchup on paper.
However, they are another team trending down right now. With former head coach Michael Malone out, Denver is sure to feel the effects of missing a championship-level coach. Paired with Jamal Murray's availability being in question, the Nuggets are down key playoff experience right now.
They just seem vulnerable. Their defense is slipping, Russell Westbrook has become a disaster over the last week and they don't have the personnel to chase Curry for seven games. It's shades of the 2022 playoffs. The Warriors attacking Jokic with Curry every possession while betting on Green to bother Jokic enough to get by them.
Warriors' nightmare playoff scenarios
Facing a team with length and athleticism on the perimeter is where the Warriors could run into trouble. That Houston Rockets game when Amen Thompson blanketed Curry all game long basically spells out how teams can give the Warriors a big scare.
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are an obvious nightmare matchup; they are a nightmare for pretty much every team in the West. They have Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace to throw at Curry for an entire series. That just seems like an exhausting time for the 37-year-old, which will force other Warriors to step up on offense.
But beyond OKC, the Los Angeles Clippers also seem like a tough opponent. The Clippers are one of the few playoff teams that can match the Warriors in postseason experience. Kawhi Leonard has always been a tough Dubs opponent, even if he is a wild card health-wise. And James Harden, for all his playoff shortcomings, is playing some of his best basketball right now. He still has the ability to foul a team out all by himself.
And this isn't even mentioning their depth. The Clippers have the size, length, and athleticism to stymie the Warriors. Ivica Zubac and Norman Powell just always seem to kill the Dubs. Zubac has averaged 16 points and 15.3 rebounds against the Warriors this season, while Powell has averaged 23 points on 54.0% shooting.
Plus, they also have depth to throw at Curry while still sparing Leonard for Butler. Kris Dunn is a menace. Derrick Jones Jr. has the length and size to chase Curry for stretches. We might even see some Ben Simmons taking the big assignment as a Tyrone Lue wrinkle.
50-50 matchups
As for the rest of the matchups for the Warriors, they could go any way.
The Los Angeles Lakers are by no means an easy playoff matchup. The LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves three-headed hydra can just destroy any defensive gameplan at any time.
However, they do seem more vulnerable to Curry and the Dubs than in years past. The recent West Coast showdown was revealing in how the Warriors attacked the Lakers defense. Without Anthony Davis, Golden State got whatever they wanted in the paint. Back cuts, back screen drives, offensive rebounds– the Warriors offense looked so much smoother against an AD-less Lakers defense.
The Rockets came up earlier in this article, and they're also tough. Their youth and athleticism is certainly a recipe to get at Curry. If Thompson can contain Curry for seven games, Houston has a chance to knock off the Warriors. But that's a big if, and they have their own offensive issues.
Their fourth-quarter offense is still a bit of a mess. They have no go-to scorer for those much-needed baskets down the stretch. Jalen Green has been better as of late, but he's never been in the last five minutes of a critical playoff game. Alperen Şengün has tussled with Green, but he also lacks playoff experience and can't exactly set himself up in the post all by himself.
But regardless of who the Warriors play, it won't be easy. The fun thing about the Western Conference this season is the unprecedented parity. Eight teams have a legitimate shot of getting to the finals if things break right.
