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The 2024-25 NBA schedules are out, so basketball fans can now mark their calendars for games they'd want to see. Some fans prefer to only watch marquee games, with powerhouse teams and their star-studded lineups taking center stage. Other fans, however, would rather follow their favorite teams throughout the season. This can be said for many of the Milwaukee Bucks fandom, who are undoubtedly eager to monitor their team's progress after a disappointing campaign.
The Bucks themselves certainly want nothing else right now than to bounce back. After all, an early playoff exit wasn't really befitting for a team that boasts the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton. They'll be a contender again, nevertheless, with their stars in tow for another season. However, there are concerns about whether or not they'll face similar issues to that of last season. Will the Bucks remain the same, or will they somehow make strides this time around? This article will analyze the team to make a record prediction for their upcoming campaign.
A recap of last season's obstacles
Throughout the past year, there were already signs that the 2023-24 season would not go their way. First, there was the decision to suddenly replace Adrian Griffin with Doc Rivers. Rivers is an experienced coach, no doubt about that. However, with all the system changes and adjustments that come with such a move, one could theorize how deciding on it mid-season hindered the team's momentum.
In relation to that, the Bucks had a relatively quiet second half of the season. They had trouble piling up the wins in late January and early February. It seemed like for every victory or two, losses would also pop up in return. A six-game winning streak late in February seemed to indicate a resurgence, but the team slumped back and struggled once again. To end the regular season, Milwaukee won just three out of their last 10 games.
Add the postseason injuries as well. Throughout their series against the Indiana Pacers, the Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Damian Lillard missed Games 4 and 5 as well. This all culminated in a first-round exit, giving Wisconsin sports fans a season to forget.
An offensive problem that needs fixing
When Doc Rivers was hired, he was tasked to fix the Bucks' defense, and that he did; The team allowed fewer points in the paint and fastbreak points compared to when Griffin was at the helm. However, it looks like the offensive adjustments didn't translate too well.
Before going into the numbers, it's important to note that Rivers replaced Griffin near the end of January. In the month of February, Milwaukee averaged just 112.7 points per game as a team — a dip compared to their previous month's tally of 121.7 points per game. By April, it reached a new low — the Bucks scored just 106.3 points per game in their last eight regular season games.
Milwaukee's field goal percentage also dropped. Through 56 games before the All-Star break, the Bucks were shooting at 49.4% from the floor. Following the festivities at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the percentage dropped to 47.3. The team's offensive rating also decreased from 118.9 (pre-All-Star break) to 114.7 (post-All-Star break)
According to an article by Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix, Rivers entered the picture with the goal of “simplifying” the offense, which he felt wasn't utilizing Antetokounmpo and Lillard enough. As a result, he emphasized running the pick-and-roll with both superstars. This simplification of the playbook has led to a slower tempo on the floor. Before the All-Star break, the Bucks averaged a 102.02 PACE, as compared to after when it lowered to 97.28.
In short, the Bucks are moving toward a steadier offense, prioritizing their top two scorers with one of basketball's oldest plays as the primary point of attack. But at what cost? The adjustment has yet to bring about wins consistently. And it also didn't help how Lillard hadn't shot the ball well this past season. He averaged 24.3 points per game on 42.4% shooting — a massive drop compared to his Portland stats. Maybe it had something to do with playing alongside another superstar, something that DameTime isn't used to.
Silver linings and the final prediction
On the bright side, there were silver linings from last season. First off, despite two injured superstars, the Bucks still took the Pacers to six games during their playoff series. That says a lot, considering how Indiana reached the Conference Finals. One can only imagine what might have happened if Milwaukee were at full strength. Come October, a fully healthy Bucks team awaits the fans. Lillard and Antetokounmpo are more than ready to go, and the Greek Freak even looked dominant during his Olympic stint in Paris. Khris Middleton may be recovering from ankle surgeries, but he's expected to be back once the season begins.
Secondly, despite all the issues that persisted, Milwaukee was still able to snag the East's third seed last season. That's how much talent they have. So if there's a team that's capable of putting up a revenge tour, it's the Bucks. There's no reason why Antetokounmpo won't be destroying defenses once again. Lillard's recent struggles are concerning, but it won't be surprising to see him bounce back once the chemistry with the Greek Freak progresses to another level. Middleton continues to be a formidable third option, and Bobby Portis was just in the running for Sixth Man of the Year. Brook Lopez's age poses a concern, but he was still reliable down the block for Milwaukee last season.
As for incoming players, the Bucks were able to get quality additions such as Gary Trent Jr. and Taurean Prince. Trent will likely be inserted in the starting lineup as the team's top shooter, following the departure of Malik Beasley. Prince, on the other hand, is predicted to be a key rotational piece off the bench.
What about the worrisome offense under Rivers? Well, to end on a positive note, there have been flashes of its effectiveness, such as when the team went on the aforementioned six-game winning streak late in February. And this time around, the head coach has a full offseason to prepare and find the perfect formula. He won't just be tossed in the middle of the battlefield like last season, so that's a comforting thought to have.
If all goes as planned, then the Bucks will definitely be a 50-win team this season.
Prediction: 52-30
