We're down to the final four in college football, and that means the College Football Playoff semifinals are on the horizon. So far, the CFP has been full of surprises, but the matchup in the second semifinal on Friday night isn't one of them.
Thursday night will feature the two teams who have sprung the upsets so far in this playoff, as No. 10 Miami will take on No. 6 Ole Miss with a spot in the title game on the line. On Friday, it will be a Big Ten rematch between No. 5 Oregon and No. 1 Indiana in the Peach Bowl.
The Ducks rolled over No. 12 James Madison in the first round in Eugene before dominating No. 4 Texas Tech 23-0 in a convincing Orange Bowl victory. The Oregon defense starred in that game, shutting out an explosive Red Raiders offense to get within two wins of the title.
As the top seed, Indiana got a first-round bye before blowing the doors off of No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day, a 38-3 win that officially announced to the college football world that the Hoosiers are here to stay at the top of the sport and are the rightful favorites to win the title this season.
These two powerhouses faced off already this season in Big Ten play back in Week 7. While Oregon was the presumptive favorite coming into that game, Indiana walked into Autzen Stadium and got a convincing 30-20 win, one of the first real messages that this Hoosiers team was a national title favorite.
What went wrong for the Ducks for that game, and what do they need to turn around if they want to get revenge over Indiana in this CFP semifinal? Let's get into the matchup.
Indiana's defensive line dominated Oregon in the first meeting
It's no secret that Dante Moore is one of the best quarterbacks in all of college football. The first-year starter is projected as a top-five pick in the NFL Draft if he decided to declare, and his skills have been on display all season.
Moore has a great arm, is very accurate and has a number of playmakers to get the ball to. However, in the first meeting with Indiana, Moore didn't have any time to get the ball off and work through his progressions in the pocket.
Moore dropped back 42 times in that game back on Oct. 11 and was pressured 20 times. He took six sacks and was constantly bothered, completing just 6-of-12 passes on those plays for 71 yards and an interception according to PFF. The sophomore quarterback was constantly feeling the heat from all over the field, and that was the biggest theme of the loss.
The pressure that Moore was feeling was evident even when he wasn't actually under fire from the Indiana defense on that day. Even on the 22 dropbacks where he was not pressured, Moore was constantly rushed and had happy feet in the pocket, leading to his most inefficient game of the season.
One of the other reasons for that is that Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines excels at changing the picture after the snap, both with twists and games up front and simulated pressures so the quarterback never really knows where the pressure is coming from until the ball is snapped. In coverage, the Hoosiers are constantly flying around after the snap and playing a different coverage than they show pre-snap.
A second crack at Indiana may help Moore in this regard; he will be more prepared for what's coming and for what Indiana likes to get to defensively, especially on big plays or in key situations. He will be able to go back and check out the tape, so we'll see what changeups Haines has for Moore in this rematch.
There is one thing that should help Oregon turn that mismatch on the line of scrimmage around in this matchup. Star Indiana defensive end Stephen Daley is out for this game with a knee injury suffered while celebrating after the Big Ten Championship Game. Daley is one of Indiana's best penetrators and is second on the team in pressures, so not having him will make things a bit easier on the Oregon offensive line.
Will Oregon be able to run the ball without Jordon Davison?
Indiana isn't the only team dealing with a key injury coming into this game. Oregon will be without star running back Jordon Davison, who suffered an injury in the Orange Bowl win over Texas Tech.
Davison has been one-third of a three-headed monster in the backfield for Oregon recently, along with Noah Whittington and Dierre Hill Jr. However, the freshman bruiser is one of the mot powerful runners in the country and gets a bulk of the short-yardage work for the Ducks, as evidenced by his 15 rushing touchdowns to lead the team.
In the first meeting against Indiana, Oregon actually ran the ball fairly well. Davison put up 59 yards on eight carries, and Whittington also averaged more than five yards per carry. For an Oregon team that builds its offense around the run game, that will be a big part of the gameplan on Friday night.
Davison won't be out there, but Hill wasn't a big part of the backfield rotation back in Week 7 and will now surely see a heavy workload. His explosiveness is a big asset and could give Dan Lanning and company a boost in this game.
But, once again, this is going to come down to the line of scrimmage when Oregon has the football. Indiana dominated that matchup in Eugene, bullying Oregon all day long and holding its explosive offense to just 20 points. If Lanning and the Ducks want to get revenge in the CFP, that is the biggest thing that needs to change.
