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The College Football Playoff semifinals are almost here. We started with 12, and there are now just four teams remaining in the hunt for the national championship: five seed Texas, six seed Penn State, seven seed Notre Dame and eight seed Ohio State. The Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish will do battle first as they will meet in the Orange Bowl CFP semi on Thursday night. The Buckeyes and Longhorns will follow that up with a matchup on Friday in the Cotton Bowl CFP semi. These should be two good games, and the winners will meet on January 20th in the national title. Now, let's talk Orange Bowl.
Penn State and Notre Dame will get the semifinals started, and this is expected to be a close one. The current odds say that this one is close to being a coin flip, so hopefully we get a close game as the CFP hasn't seen a lot of those so far.
Before we get into predictions for this matchup, let's take a deeper dive into both the Fighting Irish and the Nittany Lions.
Penn State had an ideal path to the semis
The Penn State football team was heartbroken when they lost in the Big Ten title game against Oregon, but let's be honest, the Nittany Lions' season would be over if they had won that game. Penn State would've been the top seed if they won the Big Ten, and they would've played their first game of the playoff against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. We saw what happened to Oregon in that game.
Instead, the Nittany Lions got to host a first-round playoff game which was great for their fans as the environment was awesome, and it was against SMU. The Mustangs didn't put up much of a fight and the Nittany Lions won easily.
In the quarterfinals, Penn State got Boise State. The Broncos were the higher seed because of their Mountain West title, but they weren't ranked ahead of the Nittany Lions. Penn State won by 17.
The road has been pretty easy so far, but things will be tougher this weekend for the Nittany Lions against Notre Dame.
Notre Dame has looked strong in the CFP
Like Penn State, the Notre Dame football team also started off their playoff run with a home game. The Fighting Irish hosted in-state foe Indiana to start the CFP, and they made easy work of the Hoosiers to set up a date with Georgia.
Thanks to an incredible stretch that led to 17 points in less than a minute of play, Notre Dame was able to take down the Bulldogs 23-10. The game was 3-3 with less than a minute to go in the first half, and then the Fighting Irish kicked a field goal, recovered a fumble, scored a touchdown and returned the opening kick in the second half for a touchdown. Just like that, it was 20-3.
Outside of that one minute, it was a pretty even game, but that was certainly the difference as the Fighting Irish went on to win 23-10. Now, Notre Dame is fighting for a spot in the national title game. Here are three predictions for the Orange Bowl:
Notre Dame will score less than 20 points in regulation
The Notre Dame offense had a lot of trouble moving the football against Georgia, and that will likely be the case against this strong Penn State defense. This game could end up looking a lot like the Sugar Bowl. It will be a low-scoring slugfest, and the Fighting Irish won't hit 20 points in regulation.
Notre Dame will hold Penn State to under 20 points in regulation
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Notre Dame won't score 20 points in regulation, but neither will Penn State. Yes, Georgia was playing their backup quarterback, but the Fighting Irish were locked in on defense in the Sugar Bowl, and they completely shut down Indiana as well. Penn State is going to have a lot of trouble getting anything going on offense.
Notre Dame will win in overtime
The Orange Bowl is going to need more than 60 minutes. Neither team is going to score a lot, and things will be deadlocked when we hit the end of the fourth quarter. The Fighting Irish will end up coming out on top with a 24-20 win in OT.
Notre Dame and Penn State will get the Orange Bowl started at 7:30 ET on Thursday from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, and the game will be airing on ESPN. The Fighting Irish are currently favored by two points.
How we got to the CFP semis
From 12 to four, we made it to the College Football Playoff semis. All four of these teams started from the beginning as none of them had a bye, so let's take a quick look at how they are all still standing.
Starting with five seed Texas, the Longhorns took down Clemson at home to start the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns won comfortably by two touchdowns to set up a showdown with Arizona State. The Sun Devils put up a great fight, but they weren't able to get it done as Texas got won it in overtime. Now, they essentially have a home game in the semis against Ohio State.
Six seed Penn State started the playoff with a blowout win against SMU at home. That one was never close, but the Nittany Lions got a good fight from Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. A strong start and finish was the difference as Penn State won that one 31-14.
Up next is seven seed Notre Dame, and they also started the playoff out at home. The Fighting Irish easily took care of business against Indiana, and they upset two seed Georgia in the Sugar Bowl to punch their ticket to the semis where they will meet up with Penn State.
Dominant eight seed Ohio State started things off with an easy home win against Tennessee, and then the Buckeyes got revenge on Oregon in the Rose Bowl with another convincing win. Ohio State is the favorite to win it all.
The playoff hasn't had a ton of close matchups yet, but hopefully we see a couple good ones in the semis.
