Oklahoma got off to a promising start to the 2025 college football season, but is just 1-2 in its past three games entering a Week 10 matchup with Tennessee. The top-20 teams enter the meeting with identical 6-2 records, albeit with differing momentum. Ahead of the high-profile showdown, we will be making our Oklahoma-Tennessee predictions.
The Sooners were widely viewed as national title frontrunners after their first four games, which included ranked wins over Michigan and Auburn. However, everything fell apart when star quarterback John Mateer suffered a hand injury that required surgery, and they have not been able to recover since.
Oklahoma was still a top-10 team just three weeks ago, when it faced Texas in the annual Red River Rivalry. The game marked Mateer's surprisingly quick return just 18 days after his surgery. The quick return appeared to be a mistake, as Mateer did not look like himself in a 23-6 loss to the unranked Longhorns.
Brent Venables' team has since rebounded with a win over South Carolina, but it enters Week 10 off a disappointing home loss to Ole Miss. The Sooners squandered a late lead in that game to drop to 6-2.
While Oklahoma struggles to remain afloat, Tennessee waltzes into the matchup having gone 2-1 in its last three games. The Volunteers suffered a brutal loss to Alabama in Week 8, but sandwiched that game with a pair of wins over Arkansas and Kentucky.
The Week 10 matchup presents a clash of styles, with Venables and Oklahoma's sturdy defense facing Josh Heupel's high-powered Tennessee offense. With College Football Playoff implications on the line, we will break down our Oklahoma-Tennessee predictions.
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John Mateer gets back on track with 400-yard, 4-TD game
The road has not been smooth for Mateer since his return from his hand injury. Initially feared to potentially be season-ending, Mateer surprisingly missed just one game before returning to the lineup, for better or worse.
Mateer was the clear Heisman frontrunner at the time of his injury and has looked anything but that in the three weeks since. The junior enters Week 10 with 575 passing yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three games, during which he has completed just 57.89 percent of his passes.
A matchup with Tennessee's bottom-feeding pass defense could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Mateer. The Volunteers have consistently been one of the worst defenses in college football and enter Week 10 allowing 266.3 passing yards per game, the most in the SEC.
Tennessee's defense has fared so poorly that even subpar quarterbacks have found success against it. Kentucky's Cutter Boley entered Week 9 averaging just 211 passing yards per game over his last four outings, yet torched the Volunteers with 330 passing yards and five touchdowns.
Given how poorly Mateer has looked over the last month, fans are wondering if he will ever look the same again. He is clearly dealing with discomfort, but Venables was clear that he would not insert him back into the lineup until he was fully prepared to return.
Consider Mateer's recent slump a combination of his re-adjustment period coinciding with three matchups against above-average pass defenses. This is the perfect soft spot for the Oklahoma quarterback to remind the college football world how dynamic he can be.
Oklahoma run attack finally gets going with 200-yard game
The biggest element missing for Oklahoma throughout the 2025 college football season has been its run game. Former California star Jaydn Ott has been a bust, resulting in the Sooners posting the fourth-worst rushing numbers in the SEC.
Leading rusher Tory Blaylock has had two 100-yard rushing games, but one came against a Group of Five opponent. In five games against Power Four competition, Blaylock is averaging just 36.2 rushing yards per game.
Despite the struggles, if there is any game Oklahoma will be able to get its running game going again, it is against Tennessee. The Volunteers are not as bad at defending the run as they are against the pass, but they have struggled to contain speed in the open field.
Blaylock had just 10 rushing yards in Week 9 against Ole Miss, but he is just two games removed from a season-high 101-yard effort against South Carolina.
Even on his best night, Blaylock likely does not breach the century mark again against Tennessee. But if Mateer has the passing game going as well as he should, the seas will part for Venables to get his ground game going.
Mateer's legs are another factor that have been virtually nonexistent since his return from hand surgery. The dual-threat quarterback averaged 47.5 rushing yards per game before his injury, but only 12.0 per game since. Tennessee has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks like Gunner Stockton, Taylen Green and Cutter Boley, none of whom are on par with Mateer as a rusher.
Everything about Oklahoma's subpar run game hinges on Mateer's ability to get the offensive passing game back on track. Assuming he does so, the Sooners could also rack up over 200 rushing yards on the night.
Oklahoma holds Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar under 200 yards
The biggest key to beating Tennessee is containing its explosive offense. The Volunteers enter Week 10 as one of three teams averaging over 500 yards per game and are second in the country with 45.6 points per game. They have only failed to reach 30 points in one of their first nine games.
The engine of Tennessee's success is quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has led a top-three passing offense in the country. After relying on their stifling defense to make the College Football Playoffs in 2024, the Volunteers have completely shifted gears and morphed into an air raid offense in 2025.
However, Venables' notoriously unforgiving defense could be the exact antidote to Tennessee's seemingly unstoppable offense. Oklahoma enters Week 10 allowing the fewest yards per game in the SEC and the 11th-fewest passing yards in college football.
Limiting Aguilar, who has managed at least 218 passing yards in each game thus far, seems like an impossible task at this point in the season. He is coming off a near-400-yard game against Kentucky and is only two weeks removed from hanging 268 yards on Alabama, which boasted a top-10 passing defense at the time of their meeting.
Yet, if there is any coach who has consistently succeeded in similar matchups before, it is Venables. Arguably no coach is harsher on opposing quarterbacks than Venables, who has already held numerous quarterbacks to season-worst performances in 2025.
Aguilar will find success in almost any way the game unfolds. Oklahoma presents the toughest defense he will be facing in 2025, and the Sooners have to avoid engaging in a shootout for their best path to victory.
