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Arizona State football has earned New Year's Day attention before. But Wednesday's showdown against Texas in the Peach Bowl brings on a new meaning compared to the 1997 Rose Bowl.
The Sun Devils are now pursuing a national title in the new 12-team College Football Playoffs format. A victory launches ASU into the football version of the final four. This contest easily becomes ASU's biggest game since a young Jake Plummer led the Sun Devils into Pasadena against Ohio State.
ASU, unfortunately, is the overwhelming underdog here. Texas enters Atlanta as the heavy 12.5-point favorite. But there's a fatal flaw the Sun Devils can exploit to increase their chances of stunning the Longhorns.
What is that flaw? Time to dive into one of the biggest weaknesses ASU and head coach Kenny Dillingham can zero in on ahead of the much-anticipated New Year's Day showdown.
Texas running game is wildly inconsistent
Here's where the Sun Devils have the advantage: ASU clearly comes with the best running back in this matchup.
Cam Skattebo enters the Mercedes Benz Dome as a 1,500-yard rusher. He also brings 19 touchdowns in tow — and brimming confidence. Skattebo told ESPN “There's nobody out there that can stop me.”
The Longhorns, meanwhile, have witnessed schizophrenic production with their ground attack. Some weeks Texas looks amazing after handoffs. The opening round playoff romp of Clemson comes to mind — as Texas racked up an astonishing 292 yards there.
But the ‘Horns have been wildly inconsistent when they call run plays. Texas mustered a dismal 31 yards in the Southeastern Conference title game loss to Georgia. That same Bulldogs team bottled Texas to 29 ground-based yards in their Oct. 19 meeting.
It doesn't help head coach Steve Sarkisian and company with the type of defense on deck for the ‘Horns. The reigning Big 12 champs have the conference's No. 1 run defense on their side. They only allow 117.5 rushing yards per game to lead all Big 12 teams.
If ASU shuts down the duo of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner, the Sun Devils will increase their chances of pulling the upset. This approach even adds one more flaw on the side of the SEC representative.
Arizona State can also exploit Quinn Ewers
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has delivered a rather star-crossed 2024 season. He's had to stave off Arch Manning and looked inconsistent in some sequences.
Worse for Ewers is he hasn't looked healthy this late in the season. He's taken his share of hits. Ewers is another with a inconsistent flaw. His short passing approach has lacked in key moments.
Ewers, though, is facing one of the worst pass rushing units in these playoffs. Arizona State has snatched only 21 sacks this season. Not a single Sun Devil surpassed four sacks throughout the regular season. The lack of pressure is capable of haunting the Sun Devils in this one.
What's at stake for 2025 Peach Bowl
Arizona State took advantage of its new conference surroundings. After a rough exit out of the Pac-12 in Dillingham's first season, ASU enters the CFP carrying the Big 12.
The former Big 12 rep, however, comes off as the one boasting the deeper roster on paper. Texas also is led by a head coach who has won the national title on this stage before — with “Coach Sark” winning two national championships while on Nick Saban's staff at Alabama.
The new Big 12 champ must raise their defensive performance another level on this stage. Shutting down the run can force the game into Ewers' hands. Arizona State has a strong chance to stun the college football world by pulling off both feats. But Ewers is capable of picking apart this defense if there's inconsistent pressure.
Skattebo can't be the only Sun Devil carrying this team. He needs the defense to top off the upset bid.
