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As the final month of the 2024 NFL season quickly approaches, the seasonal awards are beginning to take their final form. Arguably the most fluctuant award of the year, the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year, looks like it will come down to the wire with six weeks to go.
After taking a big lead out of the gate, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has slowed his torrid pace and has been quickly matched by his peers. The Commanders' recent three-game losing streak has not helped Daniels' case, though the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner still leads all rookies with 2,613 passing yards.
Daniels' primary competitor has been Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who has taken the league by storm in the second half of the season. Nix got off to a slow start but has been on a tear in the month of November and has led the Broncos to a 7-5 record through 12 weeks. In Weeks 10 through 12, Nix has thrown eight total touchdowns without an interception and has made the Rookie of the Year race undeniably competitive.
1. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Recency bias plays a big part in the end-of-year awards, and Nix's rise has come at the perfect time. He has outplayed Daniels in nearly every aspect since Week 8, making his impact fresh in voters' minds. Currently on a two-game win streak, Nix has seemingly brought stability to the Broncos' quarterback room that has not been present in nearly a decade.
Nix started his professional career with zero touchdowns and four interceptions over his first two weeks but has since developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Since Week 4, Nix has thrown 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Nix's career-best 307 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 11 put him ahead of Daniels in the eyes of most, where he has been ever since.
2. Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
His performances have flown under the radar all year, but Brock Bowers has a very real shot of taking home the hardware at the end of the year. Not much has gone well for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2024 but Bowers has been the lone bright spot. With 744 receiving yards through 12 weeks, Bowers not only leads the team in that category but his tally also tops all tight ends in the league.
Since trading Davante Adams to the New York Jets, Bowers has become the team's top receiver out of the slot. Despite the increased attention and unstable quarterback play, the 21-year-old's 74 receptions are second among all players in the league, behind just CeeDee Lamb's 77.
If all awards were handed out evenly, Bowers should be running away with this one. Unfortunately, Bowers is likely to fall victim to the politics of the league as a member of the 2-9 Raiders.
3. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels has not performed bad over the last month; he just hasn't been as good as Nix. He is still not far behind the Broncos quarterback from first place. Some even believe that he is still the frontrunner. That is a difficult case to make entering Week 13, especially considering the recency bias that frequently play a part in these awards.
In the 11 games he has finished, Daniels has topped 200 passing yards in all but two weeks. His 556 rushing yards are just a touch behind Lamar Jackson for the most in the position. With the Daniels' statistical production has not been his main issue. The Commanders' recent three-game skid is the biggest thorn in his case as the best rookie in the class.
4. Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
The main narrative in Jacksonville has been the uncertainty surrounding Trevor Lawrence at quarterback but Brian Thomas Jr. has been a revelation for Doug Pederson. In his first year, Thomas has already established himself as the team's top target, over veteran teammates Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis.
Unfortunately for Thomas, quarterback play has severely limited his ceiling. A shoulder injury has kept Lawrence on the sidelines for the past two games, giving Mac Jones the key to Thomas' recent results. Even then, Thomas ranks third among rookies in receiving yards, second in receiving touchdowns and fourth in receptions.
5. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
In terms of pure talent, Drake Maye has a solid argument as the best overall rookie quarterback in the 2024 draft class. He has had a tough time in New England, but even in spurts, Maye's performances have already been impressive. Despite beginning the year as the backup to Jacoby Brissett, Maye is already third among rookie passers with an 85.4 passer rating, ahead of No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
The numbers do not tell the whole story for Maye, who, unlike Nix and Daniels, is without a bonafide No. 1 receiver on his team. Maye winning the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year award is a longshot, but there is no doubt that Elliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo should have their franchise quarterback in hand after the disastrous Mac Jones era.
Looking Ahead at the Rookie of the Year
Like most of the awards, the Rookie of the Year race has not been decided. After injuries slowed him down, the New York Giants' Malik Nabers can still force his way to the top if horrid quarterback play does not set him back. Williams could also fight his way into the mix with No. 1 picks always holding an edge.
With six weeks remaining, a new name is unlikely to enter the mix, but the final order of the official results remains fully up in the air.
