The Arizona Cardinals (4-9) visit the Denver Broncos (3-10) on Sunday. Action kicks off at 4:05 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Cardinals-Broncos prediction and pick.
Arizona enters Sunday's matchup losers of three straight games. The Cardinals sit in 13th place in the NFC but need a lot of help in order to make the playoffs. Arizona is 6-7 against the spread while 55% of their games have gone over.
Denver limps into this week losers of five consecutive games. The Broncos find themselves eliminated from playoff contention. Denver is 5-8 against the spread while 85% of their games have gone under.
Here are the Cardinals-Broncos NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Cardinals-Broncos Odds
Arizona Cardinals: +1.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 36.5 (-110)
Under: 36.5 (-110)
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
Arizona can still technically make the playoffs, but after losing star quarterback Kyler Murray to an ACL injury their season is all but over. That being said, the Cardinals roster a number of impactful skill position players especially on the offensive end. Arizona ranks 17th in scoring and 28th in offensive DVOA. Their defense allows the most points in the league and they rank 27th in defensive DVOA. The Cardinals ruled starting quarterback Kyler Murray out for the rest of the season due to his ACL tear.
The Cardinals announced backup quarterback Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback for the rest of the season and he inherits an abysmal Arizona offense. Arizona features a balanced offense that ranks 17th in both passing and rushing. They do roster a number of top-notch skill position players who will need to be on their A-game if they want to cover against a stout Denver defense. Wide receiver Deandre Hopkins hasn't lost a step despite missing the first half of the year due to a suspension. Hopkins accumulated 56 receptions (first), 653 yards (fourth), and three touchdowns (13th) since his Week 7 debut. Alongside Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch fill out a formidable Arizona receiving core.
Matched up with Denver's elite pass defense, look for Arizona to rely on the run game especially with backup Colt McCoy starting at quarterback. Running back James Conner has been tremendous over the last two weeks, accumulating 40 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown. Denver ranks a below-average 19th in rushing yards per carry allowed. Conner will need to continue his recent run of success if Arizona wants to cover as underdogs in a hostile environment.
Why The Broncos Could Cover The Spread
Denver's season could not have possibly gone worse as they are one of three teams mathematically eliminated from the playoffs already. The biggest issue lies with their offense. Denver ranks last in scoring and 30th in offensive DVOA. They average just 14.9 PPG – a full point below the next-closest team. The Broncos defense is stout, however, as they allow the fourth-fewest points per game and rank fifth in defensive DVOA. Denver ruled starting quarterback Russell Wilson out for Sunday's game due to the concussion he suffered last week while wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton didn't practice this week.
If Denver is going to cover as home favorites, they need to get something out of their offense. That's been the story all season for the Broncos but there is at least some sense of optimism given their quarterback change. The Broncos named Brett Rypien the starter for Sunday's game – a role he held once prior to this season in their loss to the Jets. Despite the outcome, Rypien threw for 225 yards but completed just 52% of his passes and did throw an interception. It's unclear how much he'll be asked to do from the pocket, but he faces a Cardinals pass defense that ranks 17th in yards per pass attempt allowed. If he's smart, he'll rely on wide receiver Jerry Jeudy following his career outing last week. Against the Chiefs, Jeudy caught eight passes for 73 yards and three touchdowns. Jeduy's strong play of late and Arizona's vulnerable defense are both worth keeping in mind when making a Cardinals-Broncos prediction.
With Rypien starting, the Broncos will likely rely on their running backs. Arizona is bottom-ten in rush defense – potentially setting Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack up for big games. Murray continues to float around the league as the 32-year-old is now on his fifth NFL team. He's been solid this season – rushing for 380 yards and three touchdowns on 3.8 yards per carry.
Final Cardinals-Broncos Prediction & Pick
In arguably the worst game of the weekend, the total cannot be low enough. Even with the lowest total of the week, I don't see how points get scored in this one.
Final Cardinals-Broncos Prediction & Pick: Under 36.5 (-110)
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