The Miami Dolphins (8-5) visit the Buffalo Bills (10-3) on Saturday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Dolphins-Bills prediction and pick.

Miami has cooled off since a blistering start and has lost two straight games heading into this week. The Dolphins sit two games back of Buffalo in the AFC East but hold a one-game lead in the Wild Card. Miami is 6-7 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone under.

Buffalo continues to grit out wins despite being plagued by injuries. The Bills sit two games up on Miami in the AFC East and hold the tie-breaker over Kansas City for first place in the AFC. Buffalo is 6-6-1 against the spread while 77% of their games have gone under. The teams last met in week three when Miami came away with a 21-19 home victory.

Here are the Dolphins-Bills NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Dolphins-Bills Odds

Miami Dolphins: +7 (-115)

Buffalo Bills: -7 (-105)

Over: 44.5 (-110)

Under: 44.5 (-110)

Why The Dolphins Could Cover The Spread

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Miami heads up to Buffalo with major question marks on both sides of the ball. What looked like the NFL’s most potent offense two weeks ago now looks lifeless. That being said, the Dolphins are the same team that scored 30+ in four straight weeks leading up to their recent slump. For the season, Miami ranks ninth in scoring and third in offensive DVOA. However, the Dolphins are vulnerable defensively. They allow the 11th most points per game in the league and rank just 17th in defensive DVOA.

If the Dolphins are going to cover as heavy road underdogs, Tua Tagovailoa to figure out whatever funk he is going through. Tua has had an incredibly up-and-down season between the concussions and streaky offensive outputs. He was in the MVP conversation following a dominant four-week stretch during which he provided 10 touchdowns and threw for at least 285 yards in every game. Back-t0-back poor road performances have raised questions about his ability to perform away from Miami. However, the Dolphins’ pass offense is certainly capable of a bounce-back. Buffalo has a strong defense, but a wide receiver duo like Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are always a moment away from breaking open the opposing defense.

Defensively, Miami has its work cut out for them against a strong Buffalo offense. The Bills haven’t played up to par as of late, but they still have Josh Allen and a number of capable playmakers. Miami backers can have confidence in cornerback Xavien Howard’s ability to handle star wideout Stefon Diggs as he’s kept Diggs under 80 yards in four consecutive meetings. Miami doesn’t force a lot of turnovers but Buffalo averages the fourth-most giveaways per game – giving any opposing team a chance to cover.

Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread

Buffalo continues to grind out wins. It may not have been pretty, but the Bills have vaulted themselves back into first place in the AFC thanks to four consecutive wins. The Bills are firmly in contention to make a run at the Super Bowl and have a great chance to cover in a revenge game. Despite losing to Miami in week three, the Bills out-gained the Dolphins 497-212. While their offense has slowed down in recent weeks, Buffalo still ranks fourth in both scoring and offensive DVOA. Defensively, the Bills have overcome countless injuries to rank second in points allowed and fourth in defensive DVOA.

Offensively, Buffalo has a clear advantage over a Miami defense that allows the 24th-most points per game. Miami is particularly susceptible to opposing pass attacks as they allow a pedestrian 6.6 yards per pass attempt and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA. That plays right into the hands of Josh Allen and his sixth-ranked pass attack. While the Howard-Diggs matchup is something to keep in mind, it’s not like Diggs is being shut down. He’s scored two touchdowns in their last four meetings and has at least 60 yards in three of them.

Even if Diggs isn’t lighting up the scoreboard, Buffalo has a number of complimentary weapons Miami has to worry about. Tight end Dawson Knox had a big game last week when he led the team in receiving and scored a touchdown. Knox has eclipsed 40 yards in three of his last five games and matched up well with the Dolphins. Miami allows the sixth-most yards per game to opposing tight ends – something to keep in mind before making a Dolphins-Bills prediction.

Final Dolphins-Bills Prediction & Pick

Given Tua’s recent struggles and some potentially unforgiving weather conditions, I like Buffalo to get revenge for their week three loss.

Final Dolphins-Bills Prediction & Pick: Buffalo Bills -7 (-105)