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The Baltimore Ravens (9-4) visit the Cleveland Browns (5-8) on Saturday. The game kicks off at 4:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Ravens-Browns prediction and pick.
Baltimore enters Saturday’s matchup winners of six of their last seven games. The Ravens are tied for first place in the AFC North but hold the tiebreaker over the second-place Bengals. Baltimore is 5-7-1 against the spread while 69% of their games have gone under.
Cleveland heads into this week fresh off a tough loss at Cincinnati. The Browns are in 11th in the AFC and sit two games back in the AFC Wild Card race. Cleveland is 6-7 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over. The teams most recently met in week seven when Baltimore came away with a 23-20 home victory.
Here are the Ravens-Browns NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Ravens-Browns Odds
Baltimore Ravens: +2.5 (-104)
Cleveland Browns: -2.5 (-118)
Over: 38.5 (-104)
Under: 38.5 (-118)
Why The Ravens Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore has withstood a number of key injuries on the offensive side of the ball to sit in a great position to make the playoffs. The Ravens have maintained a strong offense that ranks sixth in offensive DVOA and 12th in scoring. They’re similarly solid on the defensive side of the ball, ranking eighth in defensive DVOA and eighth in points allowed. Baltimore will again be without star Lamar Jackson, however, backup quarterback Tyler Huntley will be available to play.
Without quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens will continue to rely on their running backs to carry the way. They pounded the rock 44 times in their earlier win over Cleveland and will likely replicate that strategy without their star quarterback. Despite numerous different rushers carrying the ball this season, the Ravens still rank second in both rush DVOA and rushing yards per game. Last week, they rushed 42 times for 215 yards with JK Dobbins (15-120) and Gus Edwards (13-66) leading the way. Cleveland allows the seventh-most yards per rush attempt in the league – something to keep in mind when making a Ravens-Browns prediction.
Last week Cincinnati showed the recipe for slowing down a previously-frisky Browns offense. With Deshaun Watson still adjusting to football, the Bengals focused their energy on the Browns’ run game after an early lead. They held Nick Chubb to just 34 yards and were content to let Watson check down and rack up meaningless competitions. The Baltimore rush defense is situated well to continue to slow down Chubb. Although he ran for 91 yards and a score in their previous meeting, the Ravens have been stout since acquiring Roquan Smith. They’ve held their opponents to under 100 yards in six straight games and rank third in opponent yards per rush attempt.
Why The Browns Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland’s strategy this season was simple: Go .500 until Deshaun Watson returned from suspension and then finish the season hot to steal a playoff bid. That did not go exactly according to plan, with the Browns going 4-7 prior to Watson’s return. Granted, four of those losses came by three or fewer points, but regardless they find themselves on the outside looking in of the playoffs. The Browns’ offense has not been the issue as they rank eighth in offensive DVOA and 13th scoring. They’ve been putrid on defense, ranking 27th in both defensive DVOA and points allowed.
Deshaun Watson looked better in his second start, throwing for 276 yards and his first Cleveland touchdown. However, the Browns’ offense scored just 10 points – far below expectations for a $230 million quarterback. Matched up with a stout Baltimore run defense, they’ll need Watson to be much better. There is hope, however, as the Ravens allow the 10th-most yards per pass attempt. Cleveland will need star receiver Amari Cooper to get it going after a 2-42 line last week. The infamous Cooper home/road split could be a factor this week. In seven home games, Cooper has recorded 39 receptions for 547 yards and five touchdowns. Compare that to Cleveland’s six away games where Cooper’s recorded just 24 catches for 327 yards and two touchdowns. Watson has yet to play a home game but Cooper’s proficiency at FirstEnergy Stadium is something to consider before making a Ravens-Browns prediction.
For as bad as Cleveland’s defense has been this year, they did a great job against Baltimore in their previous meeting. The Browns held the Ravens to just 94 yards through the air. Although they gave up 160 rushing yards, Baltimore had to run 44 times to get there (3.6 yards per attempt). With linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah the latest Browns defensive player to hit IR, Cleveland will need to replicate their week seven scheme if they want to slow down Baltimore’s rush-heavy offense.
Final Ravens-Browns Prediction & Pick
With Lamar still out, I think Watson and co. will finally get things going against a vulnerable Ravens secondary and Cleveland will cover a field goal as home dogs.
Final Ravens-Browns Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-118)