Who would have thought that the Chicago Bears would be in this position. The hiring of Ben Johnson was expected to herald a change for the downtrodden franchise, but many expected that change to happen in two, maybe three years. And yet, the Bears come into Week 13 as the top seed in the hyper-competitive NFC North.
Coming into the year, a late-season battle for a Wild Card spot would have been the best possible scenario for the Bears. Now, there's a path for Chicago to play a postseason game at home. Even with their record and their gutsy wins, though, the analytical models don't seem to favor the Bears in the playoff push.
Let's look at three major statistical playoff prediction models and see what they foresee for the Bears.
FTN Fantasy's DVOA
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA, is one of the most well-known predictors of a team's performance through the season. It takes into account every single play and how successful it is, based on the down and distance, compared to the league average.
What does the Bears' DVOA tell us about their playoff chances? Well, the FTN Fantasy website has the Bears' DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) at a -4.9%. That means that Chicago is 4.9% worse than the average NFL team, according to this site. Using this number, they simulated the rest of the season 25,000 times and totaled the odds for the Bears to make it.
Well, the odds aren't as pretty as fans might think. Their model has the Bears making the playoffs just 51.4% of the time, far lower than their NFC North peers (Packers are at 79%, Lions at 82%). They have just a combined 15.8% chance of being one of the top four seeds (meaning they won the NFC North).
A deep playoff run is even more impossible in DVOA's eyes. The Bears have a 4.0% chance of making the NFC Conference Championship, a 0.9% of advancing to the Super Bowl, and a 0.3% chance of winning it all.
ESPN's Playoff Projections
ESPN's playoff predictions foresee a better future for the Bears, but not by a lot. ESPN has the Bears advancing to the playoffs 62% of the time. Even then, though, the Bears have the eighth-best odds according to the website. That would leave them on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
ESPN is also a little more generous in the rest of their predictions for the Bears. The website gives Chicago a 24% of winning their division and an around a 3% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. ESPN also has the Bears earning a first-round bye 4%, compared to the 1.4% that DVOA gives them.
The Athletic's Playoff Projections
As for The Athletic, their model is the one that's the most unforgiving to the Bears and their playoff hopes. Their current projected end-of-season standings has Chicago as the eighth seed, missing the playoffs despite finishing the season with a 10-7 record. They were beat out by the Lions in this scenario.
The Athletic has the Bears making the playoffs 49% of the time, and they won the NFC North just 16% of the time. Chicago's odds to win the Super Bowl is also less than 1%, similar odds to them earning the first seed in the NFC>
Why are the projections so low?
The dismal projections for the Bears begs one question: why do the models hate Chicago's chances, despite their 8-3 record this year? Well, there are a few factors as to why Chicago is not favored to make the playoffs. The most glaring factor, of course, is that the Bears have been through a slew of one-win games.
Some of these one-win games were also against teams that are well out of the playoff picture at this point. The Bears' wins against the Raiders, Bengals, Giants, and Vikings have all been one score games. These are teams that, on paper, a good playoff team should not struggle with. Chicago has been a gritty team that's been able to take control in the clutch, but these types of wins aren't loved by these statistical models that take into account the strength of the team they've faced.
There's also the fact that the Bears are yet to face their tough NFC North rivals. They still have two dates against the Green Bay Packers, and another game against the Detroit Lions coming up. Add to that games against the Eagles in Week 13 and the (relatively) healthy San Francisco 49ers in Week 17, and it's easy to see why these models don't favor Chicago.
Still, the Bears this season have already shown that they're better than their previous counterparts. Past versions of these Bears would've found a way to lose these one-score games. Now, it's time for them to show up against the best teams in their schedule to secure a post-season ticket.
