The AFC Championship Game rarely offers a script this dramatic. On Sunday afternoon at Empower Field, the top-seeded Denver Broncos will host the New England Patriots with a Super Bowl berth on the line after a brutal twist of fate. Denver earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage the hard way. Now, though, they must attempt to finish the job without franchise quarterback Bo Nix. He suffered a season-ending broken ankle in the Divisional Round. Standing in his place is veteran backup Jarrett Stidham. He will try to navigate one of the most intense playoff environments in football against a Patriots team that has thrived away from home all season. It’s a matchup defined by pressure, legacy, and the thin margin that separates heartbreak from history.
Defense, altitude, and belief
The Broncos enter the AFC Championship Game as owners of the league’s best home record and a defense that carried them through adversity all season. Denver has gone 9-1 at Empower Field and has never lost to New England at home in the postseason. That confidence is not based on nostalgia but rooted in dominance up front. The Broncos led the NFL in sacks during the regular season and forced five turnovers in their overtime Divisional Round win against Buffalo.
Losing Nix fundamentally changes Denver’s offensive ceiling, of course. Still, it does not erase the Broncos' identity. Sean Payton’s game plan is expected to emphasize field position, ball security, and controlled aggression. Stidham won’t be asked to win a shootout but to avoid mistakes. He just needs to extend drives when necessary and trust that Denver’s defense can tilt the game. Disruption will be Denver’s best weapon.
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Here we will look at and discuss some bold predictions for the game between the Broncos and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
‘Orange Crush 3.0' forces 3+ turnovers
If Denver is going to survive without Nix, the defense must be extraordinary. There’s reason to believe it will be. The Broncos finished among the top teams in pressure rate without sacrificing coverage integrity. Against Buffalo, that approach produced a handful of takeaways and repeatedly flipped momentum.
Expect a similar blueprint against New England. Nik Bonitto’s speed off the edge and Denver’s interior pressure will force Drake Maye into uncomfortable throws. Patrick Surtain II will erase one side of the field. That would invite Maye to test tight windows. Denver forces at least three turnovers in this game. Those include one deep in Patriots territory that directly leads to points.
Courtland Sutton clears 100 yards
Without Nix’s mobility, Denver’s passing game will simplify. That benefits Courtland Sutton. Sutton remains the Broncos’ most reliable contested-catch receiver. He finished the season with 1,070 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Against a disciplined Patriots secondary, explosive plays will be rare. Still, chain-moving receptions will matter more than ever.
Stidham knows this offense well. He will look for Sutton on third downs, back-shoulder throws, and red-zone opportunities. The prediction is volume and efficiency rather than flash. Sutton should surpass 100 yards and become the steady presence that keeps Denver’s offense functional.
RJ Harvey delivers
RJ Harvey’s stat line in the Divisional Round didn’t tell the full story. Though limited on the ground, his impact as a receiver provided critical balance. He kept Buffalo’s defense honest. Against New England, Harvey’s role will expand.
With Denver unlikely to push tempo offensively, Harvey’s versatility will be essential. Expect him to contribute heavily as a pass catcher and finish with over 100 total yards from scrimmage. His ability to turn short passes into positive gains will help Denver control possession and limit New England’s opportunities.
Jarrett Stidham pulls the upset
This is the prediction that defines the game. Jarrett Stidham will not dominate the stat sheet, and he doesn’t need to. He will play within structure, protect the football, and capitalize when New England gives Denver short fields.
Facing his former team adds an emotional layer. That said, Stidham’s greatest value will be calm execution. With Denver’s defense controlling the tempo and forcing turnovers, Stidham delivers just enough offense to make those plays count. The result will be a gritty, unforgettable 21–20 victory that sends Denver back to the Super Bowl.
Looking ahead
The AFC Championship Game often rewards the team that best embraces discomfort. Denver enters wounded, doubted, and underestimated. They are also very dangerous. They have the league’s most ferocious defense and an unmatched home-field advantage. Denver has a locker room that has thrived through adversity. The Broncos are built for this moment. Stidham doesn’t need to be heroic. He just needs to be steady. If Denver’s defense dictates the game, the Broncos will write one of the most improbable playoff chapters in franchise history. They will punch their ticket to Super Bowl LX.
