The Kansas City Chiefs enter their Week 4 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens in unfamiliar territory. They are 1-2 and sit two games behind the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West. The Chargers face the winless New York Giants on Sunday. So, a loss this week would likely place the Chiefs three back, having already lost the first head-to-head meeting.
That makes this game crucial for Kansas City.
But it is equally important for the Ravens. Not so much because of the standings. The AFC North is a mess. No one believes in the 2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cincinnati Bengals are without Joe Burrow for three months. The Cleveland Browns, well, are the Cleveland Browns.
But this game means a lot to the Ravens psychologically. Lamar Jackson is 1-5 all-time against Patrick Mahomes, including the playoffs. They need to prove to themselves that they can beat the reigning AFC Champs.
They are also coming off a surprising loss to the Detroit Lions. It is not surprising because of the opponent. The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL. But Jackson had been 24-2 in his career against the NFC.
The Ravens will be motivated to get back on track. The Chiefs are in a dire situation, providing their own sense of desperation. It should make for a fantastic football game.
So, let's get to our bold predictions for the Chiefs in Week 4.
Xavier Worthy makes his return, has immediate impact
The Chiefs' offense has looked mostly dreadful this season. But they have been playing shorthanded.
Rashee Rice is still serving his six-game suspension. Then, on the third snap of the season, wide receiver Xavier Worthy separated his shoulder after running into Travis Kelce on a crossing route.
Without the team's top two playmakers, Kansas City's offense has garnered the nickname ‘pop gun.' That is because everything is underneath. Nearly all of Patrick Mahomes' throws are at or near the line of scrimmage. Their star quarterback is good enough to keep drives alive. But far too often, they go on long drives with double-digit plays, only to end in a field goal.
But Worthy is practicing this week, and all signs point to him making his return this week.
The former Texas Longhorn is not your typical alpha receiver. He is 5-foot-11, weighing 165 pounds. But he is quick, is great after the catch, and possesses top-end speed. That is something that has sorely been missing with the Chiefs' offense.
Look for Mahomes to get him involved early and often. I would expect Worthy to catch at least six passes and go over 75 all-purpose yards.
Isiah Pacheco has his best game of the season
One of the big reasons for Kansas City's struggles on offense has been the lack of a running game. Through three weeks, the Chiefs' leading rusher is none other than Mahomes himself. And it's not even close.
Mahomes has 125 yards rushing. Starting running back Isiah Pacheco has 92 on 25 carries. That is a 3.7 yards per carry average. Veteran Kareem Hunt has not done any better.
Normally, a date with the Ravens defense is the last thing a failing rush offense wants to see. But that is not the case this year.
Last week, the Lions gashed Baltimore on the ground. The duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 218 yards on the ground and four touchdowns. That was not an isolated incident either. The Buffalo Bills rushed for over 100 yards and three scores in Week 1. Then two weeks ago, rookie Quinshon Judkins averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his first NFL game.
With Worthy opening up the offense a bit, I think Pacheco will find more room to run this week. Saying it will be his best game of the season is a low bar to pass, but it is the bar nonetheless.
Chiefs pull off the upset vs. Ravens
It is not often you see the Chiefs as home underdogs. In fact, it has happened only twice in Patrick Mahomes' career. Four years ago, the Bills came into Arrowhead as favorites and won convincingly. Two weeks ago, the Eagles pulled off the win on the road as well.
But I do not see this game playing out the same way.
Kansas City's defense did not look good in its season-opening loss to the Chargers. But since that time, they have improved each week. I believe they will play well again this week, and will slow down Derrick Henry.
The future Hall of Fame running back has not had much success this season. The Browns held him to 23 yards two weeks ago. Then the Lions shut him down last week.
Without a consistent rushing attack, there will be too much on Lamar's plate to pull off the road win.
I like the Chiefs to get back to .500, winning 26-23.
