The Cinderella season for the Chicago Bears is still rolling on, as Ben Johnson and company are into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs in his first season as head coach.
All season, the Bears have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and they did so again when they erased a 21-3 deficit in the Wild Card Round against the Green Bay Packers. Caleb Williams tossed the game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go, and the defense got one final stop to secure the victory.
Now, things will only be getting tougher for the Bears in the Divisional Round. Chicago comes into Sunday's home playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams as an underdog despite being the No. 2 seed and winning the NFC North.
The Rams are coming off of a closer-than-expected win over the Carolina Panthers on the road in the Wild Card Round, where Matthew Stafford had to lead a game-winning drive in the final minutes to get a 34-31 victory. While Chicago seems undermanned in this matchup, especially on defense, but there are a few ways that they can get after this Los Angeles offense to pull the upset.
Dennis Allen must turn up the heat to cover up weak pass rush
The Bears defense is a year or two away from being Super Bowl-ready, but the offense has them at this point in the postseason. If Chicago wants to continue that run with a win over the Rams, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen must find some creative ways to pressure Matthew Stafford.
Stafford looked uncomfortable at times in the Wild Card Round against the Panthers, in part due to the different things that Ejiro Evero and company were throwing at him and in part due to a sprained finger on his throwing hand that he suffered in the first half. On the final drive, when Carolina got more conservative and Stafford had time to operate, he carved them up and then found tight end Colby Parkinson for the game-winning touchdown.
The numbers, both season-long and in that game in Carolina, back that up. When Stafford was not pressured this season, he completed nearly 69% of his passes with 42 passing touchdowns and just seven interceptions, a nearly unstoppable force on a loaded Rams offense. When he was pressured, however, he completed just 53% of his passes this season and saw his EPA per dropback fall out of the top five in the NFL all the way down to ninth.
That was on display against the Panthers. When Carolina was able to get pressure on Stafford, the potential MVP quarterback was just 2-for-9 with 30 yards and an interception, throwing the ball into coverage on multiple occasions. For a Bears team that thrives on generating turnovers on defense, that could be the difference between a win and a loss on Sunday.
Unfortunately, getting pressure on the quarterback isn't exactly the Bears' forte. Chicago ranked 26th in the NFL in sacks and 27th in pressure rate during the regular season, and they logged those dreadful numbers despite posting an above-average blitz rate.
When Chicago did blitz, it had just the 29th-highest pressure rate in the league, so things didn't get any better when Allen tried to bring the heat. That its no surprise, as a banged-up Chicago secondary that played much of the season without both Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon couldn't hold up in coverage.
However, with Johnson and Gordon back in the lineup, Nahshon Wright emerging as a playmaker, and CJ Gardner-Johnson coming back from a concussion, Allen may feel like he has the ammunition necessary to dial up the heat. Holding up in the back end against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams is a tall task, but if the trade-off is pressuring Stafford, it could be a worthwhile risk.
Rams' run game can be the counter if Chicago starts blitzing
The passing game, led by Stafford, Nacua and Adams, gets a lot of the praise for the Rams, and rightfully so. But Sean McVay is still one of the best run game designers in the NFL, and that could be the difference in this game if the Bears start to get pressure on Stafford.
During the regular season, the Rams' 46.9% rushing success rate ranked second in the NFL and their +0.01 EPA per rush ranked fifth in the league, so this is an elite running game that can carry the offense if Stafford and company are having a bit of an off day. The duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum is a solid one, as both backs can get the job done with the ball in their hands.
On the other side, the Bears have struggled to stop the run this season. Chicago ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in stuff rate and 21st in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed. After losing starting linebacker TJ Edwards to a season-ending left leg injury against the Packers a week ago, the Bears could have a very difficult time stopping the Rams on the ground in this game.
This game is expected to be played in freezing temperatures, and Los Angeles could lean even more into the ground game with Stafford dealing with a lingering finger injury.
If the Rams can run the ball consistently against Chicago in this game, it will be very hard for the Bears to slow down Stafford and the passing game in manageable down-and-distance scenarios. The Chicago defensive front needs to play one of its best games of the season, both against the run and against the pass, in order to pull the upset.
