Sitting at 9-5 with three games to go, the Philadelphia Eagles are a virtual lock to make the playoffs.
After waxing the Las Vegas Raiders to a degree not seen since the 1960s, with the Birds putting up 31 points on Kenny Pickett and company while holding them to 75 total offensive yards, the Eagles have over a 99 percent chance of winning the NFC East, according to NFL.com. If they win in Week 16, they get in. If they win in Week 17, they get in. If they win in Week 18, they get in.
And if they lose out down the stretch? Well, the Eagles can still make the playoffs if the Cowboys don't win out, as any loss or even another tie would result in Philadelphia becoming the first team since 2004 to win the division back-to-back.
On paper, that's a pretty darn good place for a team that has been up-and-down in 2025 to be in, but even if the Eagles answered a number of questions against arguably the worst team in football in Week 15, that doesn't mean they will hold up against the scrutiny of a more impressive foe. No, with three weeks left to play in the 2025 NFL season, there's a chance things break really unfavorably for Philadelphia, especially if they start to skid down the stretch.
The Eagles lose to the Commanders in Week 16
After facing off in the NFC Championship game last season, the Eagles and Commanders find themselves in very different spots heading into Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.
While the Eagles have struggled for drives, quarters, games, and even months so far this season, they are still sitting pretty at 9-5, whereas the Commanders have largely been without Jayden Daniels in his second professional season, going 4-10 with Marcus Mariota splitting time under center with the former No. 2 overall pick.
The Commanders rank 24th in points scored, 26th in points allowed, and have struggled pretty much across the board, with their passing offense, passing defense, and rushing defense all ranking 24th or worse league-wide.
Heading into Week 16, the Eagles are heavy favorites to win their first matchup of the season against the Commanders, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee a win, as fans learned all too well in Week 6 against the New York Giants. Even if they are largely a bad team, one that just placed Daniels on season-ending IR no less, the Commanders are a very good rushing team, ranking fourth league-wide with 1,919 yards on the ground.
What happened on Black Friday when the Eagles faced off against another top-5 rushing offense? They got smoked on the ground to a degree very rarely seen during the Vic Fangio era, with Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, and company getting dominated for 281 yards on the ground.
Should the Eagles take down the Commanders? Yes, and if they play like they did against the Raiders, they likely will, but if the Commanders can control the clock and chains on the ground, they might just secure the win, which, if coupled with a Cowboys win, ratchets up the pressure for Week 17 against the Buffalo Bills.
The Eagles get waxed by the Bills in Week 17
Of the three games left in the regular season, the Eagles' biggest challenge comes in Week 17 with a road trip to Buffalo to face off against the Bills.
Sitting at 10-4 with the second seed in the AFC East, the Bills are locked in a heated playoff positioning race with the division-leading New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, and Houston Texans, with every single win or loss having serious playoff seeding implications heading into January. They've won their last three games, including shootouts against the Cincinnati Bengals and Patriots, and have a point differential of 87, which is among the best marks in the NFL.
Like the Denver Broncos in Week 5, the Bills are a team built around a diverse offense and an elite passing defense, with Josh Allen able to attack defenses with his arm and legs. They rank 13th in passing offense, second in passing defense, and first overall in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns through Week 15.
Are the Bills unflappable? No, they've lost four games to teams ranging from great to meh and have allowed the third-most rushing yards of any team in the NFL. And yet, after having one of the best rushing offenses in NFL history last season, the Eagles' offense has struggled to consistently move the ball on the ground, 19th in rushing yards on the 10th most attempts, ranking 25th league-wide with a rushing yards per attempt of 4.1
In Week 15, the Eagles had their second-best rushing game of the season, with Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby teaming up with Jalen Hurts for 183 total yards on the ground, but on the season, the Birds are averaging just 115.6 rushing yards per game, with seven contests falling below the 100-yard mark in 2025.
If the Eagles can commandingly defeat the Bills in Week 17, it might finally silence the doubters and prove that Philadelphia's offense is finally fixed. But if they look like the Raiders in Week 15, it could spell disaster for the team's Super Bowl chances.
The Eagles draw the Seahawks in the Wildcard Round
As things presently stand, if the Eagles make the playoffs, they will almost certainly be either the three or four seed, depending on how things shake out with the other divisions. If the season ended today, they would be facing off against the San Francisco 49ers in a 3-6 matchup, but theoretically they could face off against the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks, the 10-4 49ers, the 9-4-1 Green Bay Packers, or even the Detroit Lions, who are technically out of the picture right now as the eighth seed.
Of those four teams, the Eagles have wins over two of them, the Packers and Lions, and would most certainly be fine facing off against either team if they land them in the draw. The 49ers, too, are a team that shouldn't leave fans with too much heartburn before a mid-January showdown, as they are among the most injured squads in the NFL and have struggled with consistency against teams with a pulse.
And as for the Seahawks? Well, they are a true Wildcard, and one the Eagles haven't drawn in years.
The last time the Eagles played the Seahawks was in December of 2023. While that doesn't seem like a long time ago, at the time, Seattle had Geno Smith under center, Shane Waldron calling the offense, and Pete Carroll overseeing the offense as a whole.
In 2025, the Seahawks are a very different team, with Sam Darnold picking up where he left off in 2024 as a Viking, Klint Kubiak calling the show, and Mike Macdonald bringing his highly respected Ravens defense over from Baltimore to the Emerald City. They rank eighth in passing offense on the 31st most attempts, 22nd in rushing yards on the fifth-most attempts, and have a top-7 defense in terms of passing and rushing through Week 15.
Could the Eagles beat the Seahawks? Sure, in the NFL, any team can beat any other in any given game. But because the Birds have never played the Seahawks as presently constructed, there's a level of uncertainty that isn't present with the 49ers, Lions, or Packers that could create trouble for a Philadelphia team that is anything but a juggernaut at this stage of the game.
