The Washington Commanders won’t have Jayden Daniels against the Chiefs. And that could add to their third-down woes. However, for those who want to live in the land of silly optimism, here is how the Commanders can shock the Chiefs in Week 8 without Jayden Daniels.
This is the second injury for Daniels, who suffered a sprained left knee against Green Bay in Week 2 and missed two games. Still, the Commanders went 1-1 with the offense scoring a combined 61 points.
But remember, this is the Chiefs, not the Raiders or Falcons.
QB Marcus Mariota will have to shine
Let’s give Mariota a break on the horrible pick-six he threw against the Cowboys. It was a bad decision, a horrible effort, and it didn’t change the outcome of the game.
Overall, Mariota has been solid. In three games, he has completed 60.3% of his passes for 426 yards. He has three touchdown tosses and two interceptions while taking five sacks.
The Commanders can win with him at quarterback. But against the improving Chiefs, Mariota has to play at his highest level.
One good thing is Mariota has confidence playing for the Commanders. It’s part of his second journey in the NFL, according to The Athletic.
“It’s been such an interesting journey for me and I would never trade it for anything in the world,” Mariota said recently. “I think I’m here for a reason. I believe in it.”
One reason Mariota has enjoyed his ride with the Commanders is the way head coach Dan Quinn handled him.
“The discussions we had were: ‘Be you, man,’ Quinn said. “That’s more than enough. And you don’t have to overtry or put (anything extra) on it. I was very proud of him for that.”
That allowed Mariota to play with more freedom.
“Throughout my career, I’ve put a lot of pressure on myself to be perfect, and I think I play my best when I’m enjoying it and having fun,” he said last season. “So that’s kind of how I’ve approached it, maybe the last couple years, and whatever happens, happens. But I think for the most part it’s just focusing on what I can control and not worrying about everything else.”
And that’s what the Commanders need on Monday night. Mariota needs to hit modest totals, like 250 yards passing. Maybe 25 yards rushing. And most of all, he has to lead the Commanders to finishing drives.
Commanders must run the football
The Chiefs are powerful against the pass. They’ve allowed only 174.6 yards per game, which ranks No. 4 in the NFL. So, the Commanders will need to run the football to have a chance to move it down the field.
That means Jacory Croskey-Merritt will have to have at least his second-best game of the season. He will need to be effective on first down, getting four, five, or six yards. If he gets hits for one or two yards, the Commanders’ drive will immediately be in trouble.
Plus, Jeremy McNichols will need to be effective with the chances he gets. And Mariota will have to make plays with his feet when the receivers are covered early.
The Commanders rank No. 2 in the NFL with 148.9 yards rushing per game. They need to make that work in a big way against the Chiefs.
How many points to Commanders need?
This is a key point in the discussion. The Commanders’ defense is not good. Patrick Mahomes will have his pick of open receivers throughout this game. And when Mahomes has that level of comfort, he puts up big games.
The only way the Commanders could hold him in check would be a pass rush. But their defensive ends this week are Jayln Holmes and Preston Smith. Holmes has four career sacks in eight seasons. Yikes. Smith has 70.5, but his best days are behind him.
The Commanders’ only hope is to blitz. And beating Mahomes seems more like a desperation hope than anything else.
So, it’s going to take points. How many? If the Commanders play conservatively on defense and manage to turn a couple of Chiefs’ drives into field goals. The Chiefs have scored 31, 30, 28, and 27 points over their last four games. This feels like a 34 spot. So the Commanders would need 35 points to win.
The Commanders must coach perfectly on offense
If the Commanders get to second and 10 and run the ball up the middle for two yards, they might as well get ready to punt. The only way to move the football against the Chiefs is to stay ahead of the chains.
Running the ball in a passing-need situation needs to work for solid gains. Because they don’t have Daniels around to bail them out. Third and long is a no-win situation with Mariota behind center.
The Commanders already made a good long-term decision by holding Daniels out for this game. They need him healthy so he can use his full arsenal, according to commanderswire.com.
“Using his legs is part of his game,” Dan Quinn said. “But remaining a passer before getting outside the pocket to run, that's something that we're going to continue to work on for sure.”
Daniels has made strides in making better decisions.
“When to throw away, when to stay alive to go,” Quinn said. “And so, me seeing that improvement already, I'm pleased with that.”
