It is Independence Day baseball as the Baltimore Orioles play the New York Yankees. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with an Orioles-Yankees prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Last night it was a three-run home run in the eighth inning by Harrison Bader that gave the Yankees the victory. Domingo German made his first appearance since his perfect game last night as well. He retired the first three batters he faced until Ryan O'Hearn singled to lead off the second.

With the loss the Orioles drop to 49-34 on the season, three games ahead of the third-place Yankees. The Yankees improved to 47-38 keeping them two games up on the Blue Jays for the final wild-card spot in a tight American League. Currently, seven different teams are within 5.5 games of each other for the last two wild card spots. The Astros and Yankees are tied for the last two wild card spots, with Blue Jays, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, and Guardians all right behind them.

Here are the Orioles-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Orioles-Yankees Odds

Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+164)

New York Yankees: +1.5 (-200)

Over: 9 (-102)

Under: 9 (-120)

How To Watch Orioles vs. Yankees


Stream: MLB.TV

Time: 1:05 PM ET/ 10:05 AM PT

*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

The Orioles have not been scoring as of late. They have lost five of their last six games and struggled to score in the process. They have scored 14 runs in their past six games, with seven of those runs coming in one game, a loss to the Reds. This average of 2.33 runs per game is well behind their normal of 4.75 runs per game in the season. The Orioles are 11th in runs this year while being top 15 in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

One of the reasons for the low run output has been some struggles over the last week by key guys. Cedric Mullins has just two hits in his last 21 at-bats while driving in a run. Gunnar Henderson is four for his last 22 at-bats, with a double and triple. Meanwhile, Anthony Santander is just five for his last 24, with no RBIs.

It is not all negative though, Adley Rutschman, who will be in the home run derby, has been hitting well as of late. He is hitting .385 in his three games in July so far and .320 in the last week. He only has two RBIs though, off a home run and a double. Adam Fraizer is the only other member of the team with a home run in the last week, as he has driven in two runs as well. The small power outage is not overly concerning or odd though. The Orioles sit 15th in the majors in home runs this year.

Getting the start today will be Kyle Gibson. Gibson is 8-5 on the season with a 4.66 ERA. The last time out was a rough one for Gibson. He gave up six runs in just 4.2 innings against the Reds. He did walk away with a no-decision as the Orioles has seven runs in the game. Gibson has struggled for the better part of a month now. In June he went 1-2 with a 6.84 ERA.

Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread

The Yankees have won six of their last ten games, and have had some quality offensive outputs. They have scored 47 runs in their last ten games which is just over their average of 4.45 runs per game this year. What has been impressive is their offense in the wins. In their six wins, they have scored 39 runs, good for 6.5 runs per game.

It has been the long ball as of the last week that has helped the Yankees, which is not surprising considering they are fifth in the majors in home runs this year. Seven different Yankees have hit home runs in the last week. Josh Donaldson has two of them with five RBIs in the past week but is hitting just .150. Meanwhile, Kyle Higashioka has one while hitting .333.

The hottest bats as of late belong to Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Anthony Volpe. Kiner-Falefa is hitting .429 over the last week with five RBIs. He also has a home run and a double in that period. Volpe is hitting .519 in the last week, with a home run, a triple, and a double with two RBIS and seven runs scored. The home runs have not been the only totals that are high for the team. Kiner-Falefa and Donaldson are two of four guys who have five RBIs in the last week. Harrison Bader and Giancarlo Stanton have also driven in five runs in the last week.

The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound today. He is 3-6 on the season with a 4.37 ERA. In his last outing, he went 5.1 innings and gave up the most runs he has since June 6th. He gave up three runs on five hits in a winning effort over the Athletics. It was a solid month of June for Schmidt. He went 1-1 in five starts with a 3.04 ERA. He has also curtailed giving up home runs. Schmidt has not given up a home run in his last three starts. However, his walks have gone up. He has walked three batters in two of his last three starts.

Final Orioles-Yankees Prediction & Pick

While Clakee Schmidt has not been lights out this year, he has been solid over the last month. That is more than what Kyle Gibson can say. While Gibson has the better record, Schmidt has been the better pitcher as of late. Combining that with how the Yankees are hitting, this should be a win for New York. Over the last seven days, only two Orioles batters are hitting over .210. Meanwhile, four different Yankees batters are hitting over .300 in the same period. Only five Orioles have two or more RBIs with the top being three over the last week. Six different Yankees have had three or more RBIs in the last week. The Yankees are hot right now, and the Orioles have hit a dry patch.

Final Orioles-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Yankees +1.5 (-210)