Subscribe
Follow Us
In a pivotal NFC North showdown, the NFL-leading Detroit Lions (11-1) host the Green Bay Packers (9-3) in Week 14's Thursday Night Football matchup. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Packers-Lions prediction and pick.
Packers-Lions Last Game – Matchup History
In their first matchup of 2024, the Lions topped the Packers 24-14 at Lambeau Field in Week 9. The win was a mere byproduct of Detroit's current 10-game win streak. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love was arguably not 100 percent for that game, entering the matchup questionable with a groin injury.
While the Packers own the all-time record in this rivalry, the Lions have dominated the recent matchups. In the last three years, Detroit has gone 5-1 against their NFC North foes, including winning three straight on the road. However, the last time they faced off at Ford Field, the Packers came out on top, 29-22, in Week 12 of the 2023 season.
Overall Series: Packers lead 104-77-7
Here are the Packers-Lions NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Packers-Lions Odds
Green Bay Packers: +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +150
Detroit Lions: -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -178
Over: 51.5 (-110)
Under: 51.5 (-110)
How to Watch Packers vs. Lions
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Stream: FuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Packers Could Cover The Spread/Win
There is no doubt that the Lions have an elite defense. They are top-10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed, making it difficult to beat them anywhere. The problem at this point in the year is their health, as they are now down all three starting linebackers after placing Malcolm Rodriguez on injured reserve. On top of Aidan Hutchinson, that makes four members of their elite front seven out in Week 14.
The fact that they have remained elite even through the injuries is a testament to the work Aaron Glenn has done but it could finally catch up to them against the Packers. In a short week, Green Bay is one of the most run-heavy teams in the league led by Josh Jacobs, whose 221 carries are the fourth-most in the league. Both teams will have a full week of preparation after playing on Thanksgiving but it will be the Lions doing more lineup-shifting with the injury to Rodriguez and top cornerback Carlton Davis III being limited in Monday's practice.
Additionally, the Packers' tendency to play zone defense favors them in this matchup. Against man coverage, Jared Goff is No. 1 in the NFL with a 158.3 passer rating. However, against zone, his 86.9 passer rating ranks in the bottom 10 among all quarterbacks.
Why The Lions Could Cover The Spread/Win
For as hurt as the Lions are, the Packers are not without injuries of their own. Three key offensive linemen — Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, and Rasheed Walker — have all been deemed questionable, while Thanksgiving Day star Isaiah McDuffie is also dealing with an ankle injury. Josh Jacobs, Romeo Doubs, and Jaire Alexander were also all limited on Monday, though all are expected to play.
While Goff struggles to pass the ball against zone defenses — he threw for just 145 yards in the first matchup — the Lions have been able to run the ball against anybody this year. In Week 9, both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs topped 60 rushing yards with over four yards per carry. The “Sonic and Knuckles” duo works perfectly against this Packers defense that is solid against inside runs but vulnerable on the outside.
The Packers, who have struggled with speed all year long, were picked apart by Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle in the second half of Week 13. The Lions' biggest X-factor in the game will be zone-beater Jameson Williams, who did not play in the Week 9 meeting. The speedster has a 50 percent route success rate against zone defenses as opposed to just 32 percent against man.
Final Packers-Lions Prediction & Pick
Even though they have already played each other in 2024, it is hard to take anything away from the Week 9 result. Love could not have been any more than 75 percent in that game and the absence of Williams, the Lions' best weapon against zone defenses, significantly limited Detroit's offense. That is not to mention the plethora of injuries that continue to hit the Lions.
However, all things considered, this is still the Lions' game to lose. Even on their best weeks, the Packers have not looked like a 9-3 team. Their win over the Miami Dolphins was nice, but it took a muffed punt, 20 missed tackles, and 10 penalties. The Packers' offense is reliant on forcing missed tackles and chunk plays, two categories that the Lions are elite at defending. Williams' inclusion will also have a much bigger impact on Detroit's offense than many might consider.
Final Packers-Lions Prediction & Pick: Lions -3.5 (-105), Over 51.5 (-110)
