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Penn State blew out Maryland this past weekend, and they were gifted a spot in the Big Ten Championship game after Ohio State lost. Oregon clinched a spot in this game two weeks ago and looks like the best team in the country after blowing out Washington last week. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Penn State-Oregon prediction and pick.
Penn State-Oregon Last Game – Matchup History
These two teams are meeting for the first time since 1994 and for the first time as conference foes. These teams met in the Rose Bowl when Oregon was in the Pac-12, and Penn State won 38-20. A lot has changed since 1994, and this should be a great matchup between the two teams, as it will decide a lot of seeding in the college football playoff.
Overall Series: Penn State leads 3-1
Here are the Penn State-Oregon College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Penn State-Oregon Odds
Penn State: +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +140
Oregon: -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -170
Over: 49.5 (-115)
Under: 49.5 (-105)
How to Watch Penn State vs. Oregon
Time: 8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Penn State Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Nittany Lions have improved significantly on offense this year after revamping their offense with a new offensive coordinator. They are averaging 33.3 points and 442.8 yards per game. The key to this offense is Drew Allar as a quarterback and his improvement this year. He has 2,668 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions, with a 71.6% completion percentage. He has been great, but the Nittany Lions need more from their receiving corps. Tyler Warren is the big standout at tight end, and he has 978 yards and six touchdowns on 81 receptions. The running game makes this offense go with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Allen has 698 yards and five touchdowns on 159 carries, while Singleton has 733 yards and seven touchdowns on 121 carries. Penn State has a huge challenge against the Duck in Indianapolis. They are playing great defense and have an advantage against a Penn State offense that does not have a huge amount of playmakers. The Ducks could overwhelm them.
Penn State's defense has been great this season. They are allowing 14 points and 266.8 total yards per game. They are solid against both the pass and the run, allowing 97 yards on the ground and 169.8 yards through the air. This defense is the biggest standout unit for the Nittany Lions. They have playmakers everywhere, but Abdul Carter is the big key off the edge. This defense is the biggest key in this game. Oregon is loaded with offensive playmakers, so this matchup will define what happens in this game. If Penn State can slow the Oregon offense down, then this becomes a much different game.
Why Oregon Could Cover The Spread/Win
Oregon's offense has been great this season. The offense is averaging 448.5 total yards and then 35.2 points per game. The offense is the key for the Ducks and how they have had so much success this year. Dillon Gabriel has been great under center. He has 3,275 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions with a 73.5% completion percentage. The receiving corps is full of talent and has been very balanced. Tez Johnson has been the key for the Ducks out wide. He has 685 yards and nine touchdowns on 67 receptions. Then, Evan Stewart has 613 yards and five touchdowns on 48 receptions. The running game has also been great, with Jordan James in the backfield. James has 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns on 206 carries. This offense has been great, but Penn State might be the best defense they have played all year outside Ohio State. This offense has a lot of talent and needs to match up well against this great defense to win in Indianapolis.
Oregon's defense has been solid and one of the best in the Big Ten, allowing 283.9 yards and 16.2 points per game. They are better against the pass when compared to how well they play against the ground game. They allow 171.5 yards through the air and 112.4 yards per game on the ground. This game will be challenging for this defense because of how well Penn State runs the ball with their two-headed backfield of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. This defense has the talent to slow them down through the air, and the receiving corps is underwhelming.
Final Penn State-Oregon Prediction & Pick
Penn State got extremely lucky with Ohio State getting upset by Michigan to make it here. Oregon has been the best team in college football all year, ever since the huge win against Ohio State at home. Drew Allar is great, but this Oregon defense is a different beast. Oregon is the more trustworthy team in this game. Expect this to be a very close game, but Oregon wins and covers to cement their place as the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
Final Penn State-Oregon Prediction & Pick: Oregon -3.5 (-110)
