It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Mets prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Phillies-Mets.
The New York Mets have authored quite a story in 2024, but they have to write the final chapter. The Mets lost their first five games of the season. Then, after winning 12 of 15 to attain a 12-8 record through 20 games, they became one of the worst teams in baseball for six weeks. From April 21 through June 2, the Mets were 12-27. They lost more than 67 percent of their games and plummeted to 24-35, 11 games under .500. Plenty of baseball commentators wondered if the Mets needed to sell and blow up the team. Trade Pete Alonso! Trade JD Martinez and other veteran players! Refresh the roster and the organization! It was not a terrible line of thought, but the All-Star break was still over a month away. June was going to tell us if the Mets were going to enter the All-Star break and the trade deadline as buyers or sellers. The Mets had five more weeks in which to chart their course and not give up on the 2024 season.
Sure enough, the team got off the mat and began to win. A comeback at Texas against Ranger closer Kirby Yates began to build belief. A 9-7 win over the Yankees and Gerrit Cole really seemed to inspire this group. A number of comeback wins from difficult positions changed the mood and outlook in the dugout for first-year manager Carlos Mendoza. The Mets lifted themselves above .500 to at least give themselves a chance in the National League wild card race. The season had a chance to be successful. However, New York was still not making that really big push to go from contender to likely playoff team.
In late August, the Mets finally found the extra gear they had been missing. A nine-game winning streak, combined with continued struggles from the Atlanta Braves, pushed New York past Atlanta. The Mets are now 16 games over .500, two games ahead of Atlanta for the final playoff spot. They're tied with Arizona for the second wild card, but what really matters is fending off Atlanta. If the Mets finish ahead of the Braves, they are guaranteed to make the playoffs.
The big complication for New York: this season-ending schedule. New York plays four against the Phillies, then three in Atlanta, then three in Milwaukee against the Brewers. That's 10 really tough games against good teams. Atlanta spends the weekend in Miami against the Marlins. This race could get very tight. The Mets need to at least split four against Philadelphia and would love to win three of four heading into Atlanta next week for a showdown series. The Mets have done so much good work, but the final battles will determine how this season is remembered.
Phillies-Mets Projected Starters
Taijuan Walker vs. Luis Severino
Taijuan Walker (3-6) has a 6.29 ERA. The Phillies won't give the ball to Walker in the playoffs, but he does need to give the team some length to reduce strain on the bullpen in the final weeks before the playoffs.
Last Start: Saturday, September 14 versus the New York Mets: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
2024 Road Splits: 5 starts, 32 IP, 46 H, 27 R, 8 HR, 10 BB, 20 K
Luis Severino (10-6) has a 3.77 ERA. Severino has pitched like an elite starter in recent weeks, becoming an essential piece of this playoff push for the Mets. Here's a big chance for him to lead New York to a mammoth victory, one step closer to a playoff spot.
Last Start: Saturday, September 14 versus the Philadelphia Phillies: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K
2024 Home Splits: 15 starts, 91 1/3 IP, 77 H, 34 R, 8 HR, 32 BB, 71 K
Here are the Phillies-Mets MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: +116
New York Mets: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -134
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Phillies vs Mets
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT
TV: Fox
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies want to have a division title celebration on the Mets' home field. That's all the motivation they need.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Severino versus Walker is a pitching mismatch in the Mets' favor.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Mets have a clear-cut pitching advantage, but the Phillies are the better team. This is a game in which the total, not the side, makes sense: over 7.5 runs. Both teams should score at least three, so as long as one side scores five, the total should go over.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5
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