The Cincinnati Reds are just outside of the 2023 National League playoff picture with more than 80% of the season complete. Even though the Reds are in striking distance of an NL wild-card spot, Cincinnati's one fatal flaw will prevent it from reaching the MLB playoffs.

It's no secret what will ultimately keep Cincinnati out of the postseason: the Reds don't have a playoff-caliber rotation. Not even close.

Teams have a chance to overcome poor starting rotation with a combination of elite offense and a strong bullpen. It's particularly true in 2023 when seven clubs from each league make the playoffs. The San Francisco Giants have the third and final NL wild-card spot despite being on pace to win fewer than 85 games.

Reaching the playoffs with starting pitching that's as bad as the 2023 Reds' rotation, however, would take an outstanding effort from the rest of the team.

The 5.34 ERA from the Reds' starting pitchers ranks third-worst (28th overall) in all of baseball. The Boston Red Sox have the worst rotation of the other playoff contenders. The Red Sox rank 21st in MLB with a 4.62 ERA from their rotation. The Arizona Diamondbacks, which sit between San Francisco and Cincinnati in the wild-card standings, are 19th with a 4.57 ERA.

The Toronto Blue Jays ranked last among the 2022 playoff teams with a 3.98 ERA from its starters. Toronto finished 18th in rotation ERA.

It isn't as if Cincinnati's relief pitchers have been outstanding. The Reds' relievers have combined for a 3.97 ERA, giving Cincinnati a middle-of-the-road bullpen.

The Reds' offense is the strength of the team, though Cincinnati barely cracks the top 10 in runs scored. More than half of MLB teams have a higher OPS than the Reds. Elly De La Cruz highlights an exciting young lineup that is good, yet not as dangerous as it might be in the coming years.

Maybe Cincinnati's rotation will be markedly improved in September. The Reds released Luke Weaver, who had a 6.87 ERA in 21 starts before being designated for assignment on Aug. 15. Graham Ashcraft has bounced back from a brutal couple of months, pitching to a 1.84 ERA in July and a 3.03 ERA in August. Since the All-Star break, Brandon Williamson has a 3.29 ERA in nine starts.

It still won't be enough for the Reds to make their first playoff appearance in a 162-game season since 2013.

Hunter Greene has surrendered 13 earned runs in two starts since coming off the IL. Greene's other-worldly velocity has yet to make him a quality starting pitcher. Andrew Abbott has a 6.08 ERA in five August starts.

With five losses in their last six games, the Reds are headed in the wrong direction. Cincinnati has given up 5.83 runs per game during its slump.

Cincinnati is somewhat fortunate to be two games over .500 and two games out of the final NL wild-card spot. The Reds have been outscored by 30 runs over the course of 134 games.

The Diamondbacks are 1.5 games ahead of the Reds with a minus-14 run differential. The Giants are six games over .500 with a plus-six run differential. The Chicago Cubs are second in the wild-card race. Chicago has outscored its opponents by 76 runs and has a one-game lead on San Francisco. The Cubs' run differential suggests that they won't be slowing down during the stretch run.

The Reds have a bright future, but they'll need to improve the rotation before they can be taken seriously as a contender.