The time has finally come for the Main Event at UFC Paris as we’ll bring you a betting prediction and pick for this headlining bout between contenders in the Lightweight Division. No. 11 Renato Moicano will square off against home country hero No. 12 Benoit Saint-Denis in a can’t-miss scrap. Check out our UFC odds series for our Moicano-Saint Denis prediction and pick.
Renato Moicano (19-5-1) has gone 11-5 since joining the UFC in 2014. His wild run began in 2021 as he’s won five of his last six fights. Since his loss to Rafael Dos Anjos, he’s notched three consecutive wins by finish, decision, and most recently a knockout over Jalin Turner. As one of the hottest fighters in the UFC right now, he’ll look for a career-defining win in Paris. Moicano stands 5’11” with a 72-inch reach.
Benoit Saint-Denis (13-2) has gone 5-2 inside of the UFC since 2021. After a debut loss, Saint-Denis went on a thunderous five-fight winning streak that including five consecutive finishes all before the third round. His big shot came against Dustin Poirier most recent when he fell short, but he’ll have a whole country behind him as he returns home. Saint-Denis stands 5’11” with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Renato Moicano-Benoit Saint Denis Odds
Renato Moicano: +235
Benoit Saint-Denis: -290
Over 2.5 rounds: +150
Under 2.5 rounds: -195
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Why Renato Moicano Will Win
Renato Moicano’s rise over the last few years has been meteoric and he’s propelling himself into this position with his personality on the microphone. Of course, it helps to have won five of his last six fights, but none more impressive than his last time out against Jalin Turner. Turner had Moicano severely hurt on multiple occasions and just when everyone thought the fight would be stopped, Moicano pulled himself out of the fire and returned to finish the fight. His toughness and grit to stay in a fight is unmatched by many, making him a dangerous opponent no matter the circumstances. If he can begin to drag Saint-Denis into deep waters, we could see another similar result from “Money” Moicano.
Renato Moicano is a world-class jiu jitsu specialist with 10 of his wins coming by the method. His opponent, however, has nine submissions of his own and has yet to be submitted himself in his pro career. Moicano has been returning to his jiu jitsu roots over the last few fights and it’s served him well considering there’s not many on his level of expertise. His striking has also improved greatly, particularly his jab, and he’ll need to be precise in keeping Saint-Denis at a safe distance and avoid his opponent when he’s lunging forward while throwing punches.
Why Benoit Saint-Denis Will Win
Benoit Saint-Denis will return to his home country of France where he notably served as a special forces paratrooper in the national military. Headlining his first Main Event and having it be in France has to be a massive accomplishment for him and he may be the most motivated man on the planet come Saturday night. Saint-Denis was highly-touted heading into his fight with Dustin Poirier, but it was clearly too big of a step-up in competition given his previous resume. Still, he’s game to fight anyone and he’ll have a much better matchup against a fighter like Renato Moicano. Saint-Denis will have an advantage with his physical strength and is probably one of the few people that can combat Moicano’s submission attempts.
Benoit Saint-Denis has yet to see a third round since his UFC debut, so it’ll be very interesting to see how he handles the five-round environment. Both men are quick to press the action, but Saint-Denis is particularly known for his intense fighting style and ability to turn the fight into chaos at any given moment. If these two end up swinging in the pocket and trading blows, the Frenchman is more than likely to land the harder blows and take his opponent out via knockout. Still, don’t expect him to be too eager given how his last fight ended.
Final Renato Moicano-Benoit Saint Denis Prediction & Pick
This is an unbelievable matchup for the UFC Paris Main Event and the UFC matchmakers have guaranteed fireworks atop this card. Both men are wild with their fighting style and can both end the fight in an instant. The contest is set for five rounds, but don’t expect this one to be left in the judges’ hands by any means.
Benoit Saint-Denis comes in as the rightful favorite due to his finishing abilities on the feet and fighting with the spirit of France behind him. He’s also never lost by submission and has nine wins on the ground, so he should be able to stifle the grappling game of Renato Moicano.
However, Moicano has been unstoppable during this stretch and even Jalin Turner’s best shots couldn’t put him away. If he can dodge Saint-Denis for the first two rounds, we should see him employ some of his dominant grappling and eventually find an opening here. For this Main Event, we’ll take an underdog shot on Renato Moicano as he turns this into another dogfight and eventually sinks in the choke for the win.
Final Renato Moicano-Benoit Saint Denis Prediction & Pick: Renato Moicano (+235)
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