The Royals make the trip to Boston to face the Red Sox! These two teams are having very similar seasons with winning records, but also being very streaky. Both teams are also red-hot leading into this game two. Our MLB odds series has our Royals-Red Sox prediction, odds, and pick for Saturday.
Royals-Red Sox Projected Starters
Seth Lugo vs. Kutter Crawford
Seth Lugo (11-3) with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched six innings and gave up three runs on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts in a Royals loss.
2024 Road Splits: (7-1) 2.03 ERA
Kutter Crawford (5-7) with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched seven innings and gave up zero runs on four hits with zero walks and four strikeouts in a Red Sox win.
2024 Home Splits: (2-5) 4.15 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Royals-Red Sox Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-196)
Moneyline: +110
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+162)
Moneyline: -130
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
How to Watch Royals vs. Red Sox
Time: 4:10 pm ET
TV: NESN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Royals have played well this year on their way to a 51-43 record. They come into this series winning three straight games. Their batting has slumped and is now around average, while their pitching is in the top 10. Seth Lugo has made a potent pitching combination with Brady Singer and Cole Ragans. Their bats have been playing well this season too. Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. have been the main standouts for the Royals behind the plate, but Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino have also played well. The Royals have been one of the bigger surprises this season, especially after last year.
The Royals are starting Seth Lugo on the mound. He has an 11-3 record, a 2.21 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP on the year up to this point. Through 122 innings, he has allowed 32 runs on 98 hits with 29 walks and 110 strikeouts. He has started in 19 games so far this season and the Royals are 12-7 in those games. Lugo has been great this season and one of the best pitchers in the MLB. He gets a difficult matchup against the Red Sox and how red-hot their offense has been.
The Royals' offense has been solid behind the plate. They are 11th in team batting average at .247 after finishing last season at .254. Their offensive output has been led mainly by Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez in almost every batting category. Witt Jr. leads in batting average at .325, in RBI at 62, in OBP at .371, and in total hits at 122. The Royals' offense gets a difficult matchup against Crawford on the mound for the Red Sox with him having a great year for a great pitching staff in Boston.
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox got hot and have played much better recently. They have a 51-41 record and have won three out of their last four games. Statistically, the Red Sox are eighth in offense and fifth in pitching. Tyler O'Neill, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Rafael Devers are all talented players and have been solid to a varying degree behind the plate so far this season. Regarding their pitching, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, and Garrett Whitlock despite his current injury have made up a great pitching staff.
The Red Sox are starting Kutter Crawford on the mound where he has a 5-7 record, a 3.24 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP. He has allowed 46 runs on 85 hits with 28 walks and 106 strikeouts through 105.2 total innings this season. In the 18 games he has started this year, the Red Sox are 6-12. Crawford has been one of the best pitchers for Boston this year in a strong pitching staff. The matchup against the Royals is a huge challenge because of how much they improved behind the plate.
The Red Sox's offense is playing great. They are seventh in team batting average at .253 after finishing last season at .258. The offense is led by Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran in most batting categories behind the plate. Devers leads in batting average at .289, in home runs at 21, in RBI at 58, and in OBP at .374. Finally, Duran leads in total hits at 107. This offense is playing great as a unit but gets a huge challenge against Seth Lugo on the mound for the Dodgers because he has been one of the best pitchers in the league this year.
Final Royals-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
This game will come down to pitching. Crawford and Lugo have been great for their respective teams, but the advantage goes to Lugo. Each offense is similar, but the Red Sox have been slightly better behind the plate. With the game being a pitching duel, the Royals should cover and potentially win on the road behind Lugo's arm.
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Final Royals-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Royals +1.5 (-196)
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