Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for the Royals in the third game of their series with the Tigers on Saturday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Royals-Tigers prediction and pick.
Royals-Tigers Projected Starters
Michael Lorenzen vs. Kenta Maeda
Michael Lorenzen (5-6) with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP
Last Start: Michael Lorenzen had started in all but one of his 19 appearances with the Rangers prior to the trade to the Royals, logging a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 75:48 K:BB in 101.2 innings.
2024 Road Splits: Michael Lorenzen hasn’t been quite as sharp when pitching on the road where he is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Kenta Maeda (2-5) with a 6.72 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP
Last Start: Kenta Maeda allowed one run on five hits across five innings of relief in Sunday’s 5-0 loss to the Twins. He struck out four.
2024 Home Splits: Kenta Maeda has had more success at home than he has had on the road this season where he is 2-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Royals-Tigers Odds
Kansas City Royals: -1.5 (+118)
Moneyline: -138
Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-142)
Moneyline: +118
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Royals vs. Tigers
Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Kansas City, MLB Extra Innings
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on Saturday night, all eyes are on newly acquired right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who is set to make his debut for the team. The Royals’ decision to trade for Lorenzen at the deadline is already looking like a shrewd move that could pay immediate dividends.
Lorenzen brings a wealth of experience and a solid track record to the Royals’ rotation. With a 3.81 ERA over 19 appearances (18 starts) for the Rangers this season, he’s shown he can be a reliable arm in the middle of the rotation. His ability to eat innings and keep his team in games will be crucial as the Royals push for a playoff spot.
The matchup against the Tigers presents a perfect opportunity for Lorenzen to make a strong first impression. Detroit’s offense has been inconsistent this season, and they’re currently fielding a patchwork rotation due to trades and injuries. This vulnerability in the Tigers’ pitching staff should allow the Royals’ offense to provide Lorenzen with ample run support.
Moreover, Lorenzen’s familiarity with Comerica Park from his brief stint with the Tigers last season could give him an edge. He understands the park’s dimensions and how to use them to his advantage.
The Royals, sitting third in the AL Central, have been one of the surprise teams of the season. Adding a veteran like Lorenzen to their rotation only strengthens their playoff aspirations. His presence should also have a positive impact on the younger pitchers in the Royals’ staff, providing leadership and mentorship.
With Lorenzen on the mound and the Royals’ offense clicking, Saturday night’s game against the Tigers looks like a prime opportunity for Kansas City to secure a crucial win in their pursuit of October baseball.
Why The Tigers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Detroit Tigers have a strong chance of defeating the Kansas City Royals on Saturday at Comerica Park, with Kenta Maeda likely to outperform Michael Lorenzen on the mound.
Kenta Maeda, despite his recent role in the bullpen, has shown signs of returning to form and is poised to make an impact as he transitions back into the starting rotation. The Tigers have been strategic in managing Maeda’s workload, using him in a bulk innings role to build up his stamina and effectiveness. This approach should pay dividends as he faces the Royals.
On the other side, Michael Lorenzen, while having a respectable 3.81 ERA this season, has struggled with his underlying metrics. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 5.17 suggests he’s been fortunate and may be due for regression. This discrepancy between his ERA and FIP indicates that Lorenzen might be vulnerable against a Tigers lineup eager to prove themselves at home.
The home-field advantage cannot be overlooked in this matchup. Comerica Park has traditionally been a pitcher-friendly ballpark, which should benefit Maeda’s style of pitching. The familiar surroundings and supportive crowd could give the Tigers the edge they need to overcome the Royals.
Furthermore, the Tigers have been showing signs of life recently, nearly reaching the .500 mark before a slight downturn at the end of July. This resilience, combined with the motivation to bounce back after recent losses, could fuel a strong performance against the Royals.
While the Royals have had a solid season overall, sitting at 62-49, the Tigers have the elements in place for an upset. Maeda’s experience and potential return to form, coupled with Lorenzen’s potentially unsustainable success, create a favorable pitching matchup for Detroit.
The combination of Kenta Maeda’s strategic usage, Michael Lorenzen’s underlying statistics suggesting potential struggles, and the home-field advantage at Comerica Park all point towards a Tigers victory on Saturday. Baseball is unpredictable, but the factors align for Detroit to come out on top in this divisional clash.
Final Royals-Tigers Prediction & Pick
Michael Lorenzen’s debut for the Kansas City Royals against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday night is poised to be a game-changer. Lorenzen, recently acquired from the Texas Rangers, brings a solid 3.81 ERA and a reputation as an innings eater who induces ground balls, which should stymie the Tigers’ inconsistent offense.
The Royals, bolstered by their trade deadline moves, are in the thick of the AL Wildcard hunt. Lorenzen’s ability to pitch deep into games will provide stability, allowing the Royals’ potent offense to capitalize on Detroit’s vulnerable pitching staff. Expect Kansas City to secure a crucial win in their playoff pursuit.
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Final Royals-Tigers Prediction & Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (-138), Over 8.5 (-122)
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