Saints' Dennis Allen favored to be first NFL head coach fired over Cowboys' Mike McCarthy

The latest NFL betting odds do not favor Dennis Allen and the New Orleans Saints. Entering his third year as the Saints head coach, Allen is the current betting favorite to be the first NFL head coach to be fired. It's not quite the list you want to be a leader on. Allen edges out Mike McCarthy (+600), Todd Bowles (+800), Robert Saleh (+900), Brian Daboll (+900) and Nick Sirianni (+1000) to round out the top head coaches on the hot seat.

The Saints are saddled with many bad contracts. Unfortunately, even though the team's struggles extend beyond his responsibilities, Allen is held responsible for the team's ineptitude. A more pressing concern is whether the person who orchestrated the Saints giving Derek Carr a four-year, $150M contract is still with the franchise.

Whether it's an inability to overhaul the roster because of all the dead cap bogging down the franchise, Carr's monster contract or an uninterested owner, the only thing working in favor of the Saints is time. Eventually, the dead cap will come off the books, and more players can be replaced via draft picks. That will happen with or without Allen.

What Saints HC Dennis Allen and the other head coaches can do to not get fired

It shouldn't be a big surprise that Sirianni is so high on a “first head coach to be fired” list. Franchises like the Eagles have a high expectation to win. For a team with so much on the line, it's a shock that Bills HC Sean McDermott isn't higher on the list. But what gets head coaches fired is the public's patience only lasts one quarterback cycle. Some teams push through that expectation, like the Steelers. Mike Tomlin will likely keep his job even if Russell Wilson and Justin Fields don't pan out this year.

When Allen arrived, the team was in quarterback limbo between Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. That 2022 NFL Draft wasn't thought to have a franchise quarterback available at No. 11, where the Saints drafted that year. New Orleans was correct in that evaluation as the top quarterbacks have fizzled (Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, etc.)

By trading their future 2023 first and more for the ability to draft Chris Olave and Trevor Penning in 2022, the team doubled down on their belief that Carr could be their franchise quarterback. If that was Allen's choice or he went along, his fate is practically sealed. Whether he is the first head coach fired or not, it's difficult to imagine the Saints challenging the rest of the NFC South, let alone the NFL.

Signing veteran quarterbacks to big contracts can backfire (Daboll and Daniel Jones, Saleh and Aaron Rodgers). Most of these hot-seat coaches are suffering from similar circumstances. Recovering from big errors may have to come with a different franchise.