On a human level, it's never fun to speculate about the possibility of someone losing their job, but in the NFL, you come to expect it. Over the last ten seasons, an average of six teams each year fire their head coach, so in the spirit of that statistic, I've managed to identify six head coaches who should be feeling the heat as training camps begin… and not just because we're right in the thick of the dog days of summer. Before we move forward, just one important note:
Nick Sirianni was rumored to be on the outs in Philadelphia near the end of the year amidst a catastrophic Eagles collapse down the back half of the season. However, Sirianni is just one full season removed from leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl, and Philly revamped their coaching staff in the offseason, stopping short of a full-blown reset. I read that to be a testament from Howie Roseman and the Eagles front office that Sirianni's job was safe, so therefore, you won't see him on this list.
Robert Saleh
Record with New York Jets – 18-33
Why he's on the hot seat – Ladies and gentlemen, the betting favorite to be the first head coach fired this season, Robert Saleh! Let's forget for a second that Saleh and Aaron Rodgers have been having an under the radar but very real war of words in the media over the course of the offseason, and instead focus on the fact that Saleh and New York Jets owner Woody Johnson reportedly had a blow-up at the NFL owners meetings back in March. If you're a head coach, that's the one guy whose feathers you don't want to ruffle, especially just a few short months after it required an announcement from the owner himself that you'd be back to coach the team the following season.
The Jets come into the 2024 NFL season with a wider range of potential outcomes than maybe any other team in the league. Could I envision the Jets winning the Super Bowl? I can! Can I envision Saleh being fired in mid-October, followed by Aaron Rodgers spending ten minutes on the Pat McAfee Show talking about how he knew that Saleh wasn't the right guy for the Jets job when he told him he didn't support Robert Kennedy Jr. in the upcoming Presidential Election? Absolutely!
As Bill Simmons used to say, the Jets — the entire team — are officially in the Tyson Zone, and for that reason, we can't rule out the possibility that Saleh could walk into his office someday soon to find that his seat is literally engulfed in flames… whether it be because he's on the hot seat, or because Aaron Rodgers read online that inhaling the smoke from the flames of an office fire was actually beneficial to one's health, so he set Saleh's swivel chair on fire.
Brian Daboll
Record with New York Giants – 15-18-1
Why he's on the hot seat – Brian Daboll has been the man in charge in New York for just two seasons, but he's already had a decade's worth of experience with the Giants. Consider, he's had feuds with coaches on his staff, weathered the storm with a cult hero at quarterback, watched as a high profile free agent running back went walking out the door, drafted a potentially game-changing wide receiver with the 6th overall pick in the NFL Draft, made a surprise postseason run complete with a Wild Card round road upset, and then fell short of expectations the following season. He's lived a full life, man!
I think Daboll is a fantastic football coach, but this might be the year that we find out he might be better suited as an assistant coach than as the man in charge. The Giants face an uphill battle to contend in the NFC East, though the situation doesn't seem nearly as dire as it did two years ago when Daboll actually led the Giants to the Playoffs in his first season with the team. For what it's worth, no matter how this season goes — and no matter what happens with Daniel Jones this year — I feel like the Giants would be wise to keep Daboll around for another season.
Sean McDermott
Record with Buffalo Bills – 73-41
Why he's on the hot seat – Buffalo's 48 wins over the last four seasons are the 2nd-most in any four-year stretch in franchise history, trailing only the 49 regular season wins that came in Buffalo's four consecutive seasons reaching the Super Bowl. As a result, head coach Sean McDermott's .640 winning percentage is the best in Bills history, and his 73 career wins trail only Pro Football Hall of Famer Marv Levy. But as Bills fans know all too well, McDermott has thus far failed to get Buffalo over the hump in the AFC.
Combine Buffalo's postseason flameouts with a couple of questionable PR blunders that landed the Bills head coach in some hot water, and suddenly it's evident that Sean McDermott's not as safe as a .640 winning percentage might suggest. That's just the case when it comes to coaches and quarterbacks. Regular season success only gets you so far.
The issue for McDermott is that Bills Mafia will never turn on Josh Allen. There's a better chance that Buffalonian's will call for a ban of chicken wings before they would call for Josh Allen's head. So that means that it's McDermott who will bear the brunt of the blowback from another unceremonious postseason exit. And God forbid the Bills don't even make the Playoffs. If that's the case, McDermott might wake up next to a horse's head AND a pink slip.
Matt Eberflus
Record with Chicago Bears – 10-24
Why he's on the hot seat – Well, the 10-24 record leaves plenty to be desired, but in fairness to Flus, the Bears roster was in such a disastrous place when he and Ryan Poles arrived in Chicago in 2022, it's hard to hit him either of them with too much criticism for how their first two seasons played out. However, Poles turned water into wine this offseason, transforming the Bears from the laughing stock of the NFL into what looks to be a truly competitive team that could make a push for a postseason berth this year. That's where things get dangerous for Matt Eberflus.
If Chicago falls short of these lofty expectations, it could be Flus who ends up being the fall guy. The front office has built up good will with fans in Chicago for the first time in half a decade, so if it's a third straight losing season under this regime, it would be easy for the Bears to pivot and pin the failed season on the head coach… a head coach with a defensive background, where with Caleb Williams under contract, it may be beneficial for an offensive-minded head coach to have control of the reigns in Chicago.
Best case scenario: the Bears are every bit as good as it looks like their roster could be, they sneak into the postseason for the first time since 2020, and then build on that momentum into next season where Chicago could emerge as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Around the Windy City, they call that The Ditka.
Dennis Allen
Record with New Orleans Saints – 16-18
Why he's on the hot seat – Dennis Allen was rumored to be on the hot seat late last season, but a pair of wins in the final two weeks of the season that pushed the New Orleans Saints' record to 9-8 bought Allen another year in the Big Easy. But it won't necessarily be easy for Allen to keep his job beyond 2024. If there's a team in the league that feels like they're in desperate need of a total franchise overhaul, it's the Saints. After years of sacrificing draft equity for win-now pieces that never managed to get New Orleans over the hump, the Saints championship window has now officially closed, and there's no reason why Dennis Allen should return if the Saints miss out on the postseason for the fourth straight season.
Mike McCarthy
Record with Dallas Cowboys – 42-25
Why he's on the hot seat – There are two answers to this prompt. Let's start with the longer answer:
Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat because America's Team is currently suffering a three-decade-long drought since their last Super Bowl appearance, with Jerry Jones at such an advanced age, I don't think he's going to remain patient with McCarthy. Now the devil's advocate could easily counter and say, “Well, Jerry stuck with Jason Garrett for nine full seasons,” and in fairness, I can't really provide a rebuttal to that. Garrett made the Playoffs three times in nine years as the Cowboys head coach. McCarthy has made the Playoffs the last three years alone. So by that logic, sure, McCarthy should feel safe. However, that leads us to the short answer…
The short answer: I just don't think that Jerry Jones will be able to help himself from hiring Bill Belichick.
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