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The San Diego Padres are one of the handful of teams that underachieved in the first half of the regular season. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the Padres.
The Friars finished with a (43-47) record which places them in fourth place in the NL West Division. SD is 8.5 games back of first place, but luckily for them, it isn't as far as it could have been. There is still plenty of time for this club to turn it around. They are about six games back of a potential Wild Card spot but they must start winning right away. The Padres start the second half in Philadelphia to play the Phillies, who eliminated them in the NLCS last season.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: San Diego Padres Win Total Odds
Over 82.5 games: -105
Under 82.5 games: -115
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Why The Padres Will Win 82.5 Games
The Padres won six of their final 10 games to finish the first half on a high note, despite being a disappointment for a majority of the season. Entering the campaign, many thought that the Padres would put out one of the top lineups in baseball each night. However, that has certainly not been the case. Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Ha-Seong Kim have hit the ball very well this season. Outside of those three, every single hitter has underachieved. Xander Bogaerts is the head-scratcher. After batting north of .350 in the month of April, the former World Champion saw his average drop to .253. Based on history and averages, it's likely that the Padres' offense is due for an explosion … and Bogaerts needs to be a big part of it.
Soto said after the All-Star Game that he expects the Padres to turn things around. The problem has been hitting with runners in scoring position. San Diego has done a great job of setting themselves up on the base paths, but executing with RISP seems to fail way too often. A season ago, those clutch moments were the reason why they found themselves three wins away from the World Series. They took advantage of timely hitting and did it without Tatis Jr. They just need Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Boagerts to all put it together at once.
The starting rotation has arguably been the best in baseball. It's been so good that even though the Padres offense has stunk, SD owns the 7th-best run differential in the MLB at (+39). The Friars have allowed the 4th fewest runs in baseball at just 362. The rotation, led by Blake Snell, saw him and Michael Wacha earn NL Pitcher of the Month honors in back-to-back months (May, June). Joe Musgrove is also pitching at a high level and once Yu Darvish returns healthy, then that could be the best core-4 in the league. In Seth Lugo's 12 starts, he's been very good as well with a 3.39 ERA. Four of the five starters have an ERA below 3.39 while Darvish is up to 4.87.
Among pitchers who have pitched at least 30.0 innings, closer Josh Hader ranks 1st in ERA at 1.08. He has been electric as always and he and Soto represented the Padres in the All-Star Game. Neither were on the roster at this point of the season in 2022. If the bullpen can improve then that would be a huge help for the Padres in the second half.
Why The Padres Won't Win 82.5 Games
If the Padres finish this season with a record below .500, then that means the offense just couldn't find that spark. There are Soto trade rumors circulating and if the Padres continue to lose games, then trading him is very possible. Trading Josh Hader is also possible even though they acquired both at the deadline last season. Two-time All-Star Jake Cronenworth is struggling badly this season. He is batting just .217 with the second-most ABs on the team at 313. In fact, outside of Soto, every left-handed hitter in the lineup is underachieving. Matt Carpenter is batting .173, Rougned Odor is batting .212, and then Trent Grisham is at .209. As of now, Odor or Carpenter will be handling DH as the Padres DFA'd Nelson Cruz.
The Padres have a major catching problem. Gary Sanchez has come in and made it seem a bit better, but Austin Nola is a major whole in the Padres lineup. Nola has played in 51 games this year. He is batting .143 with one homer and eight RBIs. His OPS is .451 as he has trouble getting the ball out of the infield. Manager Bob Melvin is set on keeping him as the backup behind Sanchez, but the former Yankee isn't doing much better batting just .197. Sanchez does have seven homers with the Padres this season.
As a team, the Padres rank dead last in the MLB with a .223 average with RISP. Yes, you read that right. The Oakland Athletics have a higher average with runners in scoring position at .228, than the Padres with seven former All-Stars in it.
Final San Diego Padres Win Total Prediction
All in all, I expect the Friars to win at least 83 games and finish above .500. Whether they make the playoffs or not, that roster is too talented to not turn things around. It may not be pretty, but the Padres will find ways to win games and because of their pitching, it will be low-scoring affairs.
Final San Diego Padres Win Total Prediction: Over 82.5 games (-105)
