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The NBA's first ever in-season tournament is underway with a matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. Our NBA odds series continues with a Suns-Lakers prediction and pick.
After snapping their season-long seven-game win streak with back-to-back losses, the Phoenix Suns got back on track on Saturday night. In this home game against the reeling Memphis Grizzlies, Devin Booker propelled the Suns to a great second-half comeback. Fueled by his near triple-double of 34 points, ten rebounds, and seven assists, the Suns outscored the Grizzlies by 13 in the third quarter to go on and win by seven. With a test that will be more difficult than the Grizzlies, the Suns travel to Los Angeles to try and take down the #1 seed in the Western Conference for the in-season tournament, the Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers continued their impressive play at home with a dominant showing on Saturday night. In their third matchup already with the Houston Rockets, they won by double digits and played some terrific defense throughout. They limited Houston to only 97 points, and Anthony Davis anchored the post as he had five blocks and 14 rebounds to go along with his 27 points. It was a plus that they were also able to see their bench produce as well, scoring 33 points. This depth will come in handy against a star-studded Suns team in this first-round matchup of the in-season tournament.
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Suns-Lakers Odds
Phoenix Suns: +1.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 229 (-110)
Under: 229 (-110)
How to Watch Suns vs. Lakers
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/7:00 p.m. PT
TV: TNT
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
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Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
Subject to much criticism, this offense for their lack of big men signed during free agency, the Phoenix Suns have silenced doubters in a big way so far this season. Their frontcourt, led by Jusuf Nurkic and Kevin Durant, has been phenomenal defensively. The Suns rank first in the league in blocks per game with 7.0. They have eight guys averaging 0.5 blocks or more aiding these efforts, with Nurkic leading the charge with 1.3. This physicality inside the paint has been crucial in limiting opponents in second-chance points. The Suns allow an average of only 13.9 second-chance points per game, the 11th lowest in the league. With Anthony Davis being the key to the success of the Lakers, if the Suns can continue this dominant post-play, they will cover with ease.
With the amount of depth the Lakers have, Phoenix's ability to draw fouls could come in handy. The Suns have been elite in baiting opponents to draw contact and selling it to the referees. The Suns rank second in the league in personal fouls drawn per game with 22.4. If the Suns can continue this trend and force the Lakers to dig deep into their bench while maintaining their core players, this game will not bode well for Los Angeles.
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
Holding immense depth in the forward positions, the Lakers have thrived in pick-and-roll scenarios this season. Tied for the sixth most screen assists per game, the Lakers are averaging 21.3 points from these screen assists. Heavily utilizing Davis, James, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and more in these situations has led to an abundance of easy looks. Although Phoenix has been aggressive in the paint this season, they lack the depth and the size to keep up with this style of play coming from the Lakers.
Another department this deep rotation of bigs has succeeded in is rebounding. More specifically, contested rebounds. Los Angeles has corralled the fourth most contested rebounds in the league and is hauling in these boards in bunches relative to their opponents. The Lakers have a 60.1% rebound chance percentage, the highest in the NBA. Spearheading this is Anthony Davis. He is currently tied for a career-high average of rebounds per game 12.5. If the Lakers continue to outrebound like they have done all season and capitalize in transition and on second-chance baskets, they will win by much more than only two points.
Final Suns-Lakers Prediction & Pick
This latest addition to the Suns-Lakers rivalry is slated to be a great matchup. In group play, the Lakers were undefeated at 4-0, and the Suns finished at a respectable 3-1. Although the Lakers have had the Suns' number as of late, seeing as they are on a four-game winning streak over Phoenix, I am going with the Suns in this one. The Suns have been very underrated this season inside the paint on defense, and with an inconsistent November for Anthony Davis, Jusuf Nurkic will be able to lock him down. While the Suns lack the depth the Lakers have on the bench, the way Booker and Durant have been playing this season, they appear primed to make a run to Las Vegas to potentially win this tournament. Give me the Suns to cover in this one.
Final Suns-Lakers Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns +1.5 (-110)
