It is time to continue our college football odds series with a TCU-Baylor prediction and pick. Find out how to watch TCU-Baylor.

Head coach Dave Aranda is still on the hot seat at Baylor. His BU team has been better in recent weeks, grabbing some conference wins and fighting to the .500 mark (4-4) after enduring some brutal losses earlier in the season. Baylor could have folded the tent and shriveled after losing to Colorado in overtime due to a Hail Mary breakdown which allowed the Buffaloes to tie the game at the end of regulation. Baylor could have stopped trusting in the coaching staff. Players could have mentally checked out. That has not happened. Baylor has fought an uphill battle to improve.

However: Baylor now needs two more wins to get to a bowl game. If the Bears do not make a bowl game, Aranda will almost certainly be fired. Even if Baylor finishes 6-6, Aranda's job might not be entirely safe, but 6-6 is the absolute baseline expectation at this point. Aranda must reach 6-6 to have a chance of being retained. He might need 7-5 — three wins in the Bears' last four games — to come back for 2025. It makes this game against in-state neighbor and longtime rival TCU that much more important for Aranda to win. If Baylor loses, Aranda will be unlikely to go bowling, and he might need to win three consecutive games down the stretch to save his job. The heat is on in Waco.

Here are the TCU-Baylor College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: TCU-Baylor Odds

TCU: +3.5 (-120)

Moneyline: +126

Baylor: -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline: -152

Over: 64.5 (-110)

Under: 64.5 (-110)

How to Watch TCU vs Baylor

Time: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT

TV: ESPN2

Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)

Why TCU Could Cover The Spread/Win

The TCU Horned Frogs have to be very confident right now after coming back from the dead to beat Texas Tech, 35-34. TCU trailed by 17 at 31-14 but never stopped fighting. It scored three touchdowns in the final 19 minutes of the game to win by one. After being able to rally like that and show supreme resilience in the face of adversity, TCU will walk into Waco knowing it can handle whatever Baylor throws at the Horned Frogs. TCU has won on the road in Big 12 play this season, prevailing at Kansas. It's not as though TCU is a paper tiger away from home. The Frogs can handle their business against a mediocre and inconsistent Baylor team which should frankly not be favored in this game, given how underwhelming it has been in the 2024 season. Baylor might be getting better, but TCU is getting better, too. That should offset Baylor's improvements.

Why Baylor Could Cover The Spread/Win

Baylor needs this game more than TCU does. Baylor is at home. Baylor is coming off a few good weeks of football. Players are fighting hard for Dave Aranda instead of abandoning ship. It seems clear the Baylor players have decided to go for it instead of packing it in. That really matters. TCU is not good enough to withstand Baylor's best effort at home in Waco. If Baylor plays reasonably well, the needle probably moves toward the Bears in this game.

Final TCU-Baylor Prediction & Pick

We think this is an impossible game to predict in a Big 12 Conference which has been notoriously difficult to bet on in 2024. Pass.

Final TCU-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Baylor -3.5