It is time to continue our college football odds series with a TCU-SMU prediction and pick. Find out how to watch TCU-SMU.
TCU reached the college football national championship game in 2022, then imploded in 2023. Would this year be any different from last year for coach Sonny Dykes? TCU got the season started in the right way with a road win at Stanford, but this past weekend, the season took a horrible wrong turn for the Horned Frogs. They built a 28-7 lead over the UCF Knights at home but squandered that lead and fell to their Big 12 Conference competitors from Florida. It was an ugly implosion for a TCU team which could not display any consistency on either side of the ball in 2023 and has carried that harmful tendency into 2024. We do see teams blow 21-point leads in college football, but that doesn't reduce the pain for the specific team which suffers a meltdown and has to live with it during the following week and possibly for the rest of the season. TCU has to be absolutely furious that it allowed that game to get away. Now the Frogs face the stiff mental test of having to wipe away that memory and truly reset for the next game. It's the Iron Skillet in-state rivalry clash with SMU, a game the Horned Frogs really care about. Will the UCF loss teach TCU some needed lessons, or will the disastrous nature of that loss hijack TCU's focus heading into a game against an opponent it frankly should defeat? We will find out soon enough.
Here are the TCU-SMU College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: TCU-SMU Odds
TCU: -2.5 (-124)
Moneyline: -146
SMU: +2.5 (+102)
Moneyline: +122
Over: 58.5 (-105)
Under: 58.5 (-115)
How to Watch TCU vs SMU
Time: 5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT
TV: CW Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free trial)
Why TCU Could Cover The Spread/Win
SMU is not a good team. The Mustangs barely beat Nevada. That's the same Nevada team which got blown out by Minnesota, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. SMU lost at home to BYU as well. The Cougars were not expected to be one of the better teams in the Big 12 this year, but they were good enough to go into suburban Dallas and beat the Mustangs. SMU appears to be one of the teams which was hugely overrated in the offseason. SMU hasn't played anywhere close to expectations, and it is hard — if not impossible — to place any trust in the Mustangs from a betting perspective in this game. TCU is giving just 2.5 points, meaning that a win by a field goal would cash a TCU ticket. That seems like a great bet to make for the price.
Why SMU Could Cover The Spread/Win
TCU blowing a 21-point lead will cause the Horned Frogs to play a deflated and distracted game. TCU players will be thinking about last week's loss instead of the moment at hand. Coaches often say “Don't let one painful loss beat you twice.” That UCF loss might beat TCU twice.
Final TCU-SMU Prediction & Pick
The spread being only 2.5 points almost feels like bait, but we're going to take the invitation here, believing that SMU is just not a very good football team. TCU — even if not playing at its absolute best — is still very probably better than the Ponies. We think you should take TCU.
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Final TCU-SMU Prediction & Pick: TCU -2.5
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