Two teams aiming to win their conference collide as Kansas State hosts Troy. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Troy-Kansas State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Troy enters the game after an opening win against Stephen F. Austin. It was a dominating first quarter for Troy. They started with a touchdown under three minutes into the game from Gunnar Watson. Then on the next drive, Reddy Stewart took an interception to the house for a touchdown. After a second Watson touchdown of the quarter, Troy led 21-3 after one. They let Stephen F. Austin get back in the game though. With 36 seconds left in the half, the Lumberjacks hit a field goal to make it a four-point game, but Troy completed a three-play 75-yard drive to lead 31-20 at the half. After holding the Lumberjacks to just ten points in the second half, they would win 48-30.

Meanwhile, Will Howard and Kansas State shut out Southeast Missouri State. Howard was amazing in the first half. He started in the first quarter by throwing a touchdown, then ran one in and caught one in the second quarter. It was four total touchdowns in the first half in three different ways. After leading 35-o in the first half, Kansas State pulled off the gas on offense in the second half. Howard would leave the game in the third quarter, and Kansas State would win 45-0.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Troy-Kansas State Odds

Troy: +16.5 (-110)

Kansas State: -16.5 (-110)

Over: 51.5 (-104)

Under: 51.5 (-118)

How to Watch Troy vs. Kansas State


Stream: Fox Sports App

Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Troy Will Cover The Spread

For Troy to win this game, it is going to start with Gunnar Watson. Watson had a great first game against Stephen F. Austin. In the game, he went 14-22 for 201 yards and four touchdowns. He did throw an interception, but that was mainly off a great play from the defensive back for the Lumberjacks, not an errant pass. Watson was moving the ball downfield and pushing it. He averaged an average depth of target of 8.8 yards and made some big throws downfield. Meanwhile, he was protected well. He was pressured just six times, making five passes and scrambling for positive yardage on the other one.

The best part of the day for Troy was the running game. Kimani Vidal ran 24 times for 257 yards in the game. He was elusive in the game, causing nine missed tackles, and having three runs longer than 15 yards, and another three longer than 10. He also got some great blocking. While he did have 171 yards after first contact, his average place of first contact was over two yards past the line of scrimmage. Vidal had huge holes to run through, and if the line can do that again, Troy will control the clock and keep this game close.

Troy will need to be solid on defense once again. They held the Lumberjacks to just 240 yards in the game while holding them to 4-13 on third downs. That starts heavily with Dell Pettus. Pettus had five tackles out of his safety position, while also getting a hurry on the quarterback, and making three stops for offensive failure. He was targeted in the passing game four times and gave up two receptions, but it was for just ten yards and he broke up a pass.

Why Kansas State Will Cover The Spread

For Kansas State, it will start with Will Howard. Howard was great in the first game, going 18-26 passing with 297 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Meanwhile, he ran for five yards and a score, plus caught an eight-yard touchdown pass. Howard passed well for the most part, making three big-time throws according to PFF, while also having the interception and another turnover-worthy pass. Still, he pushed the ball downfield with an average depth of target of 11.9 yards downfield. He was pressured seven times on 27 dropbacks in the game, but scrambled away from pressure once and avoided the sack each time.

Kansas State was also efficient in the running game. DJ Giddens ran 15 times for 128 yards in the game. That was good for an average of 8.5 yards per attempt. He had two carries over 15 yards and another one over ten in the game while converting seven first downs for the Wildcats. He was also getting good blocking, with his average first spot of contact well past the line of scrimmage. He had just 46 yards after first contact.

What was very impressive for Kansas State was the run defense. Southeast Missouri State had just six total yards of rushing in the game, while their top back ran six times for 18 yards. Linebacker Austin Morre had three stops for offensive failure on the game, while also doing work on the pass rush. He had three total quarterback pressures while getting two sacks. Overall, Kansas State had 26 pressures on the quarterback in the game, coming away with six sacks and five more quarterback hits. There were some small issues though. Kansas State missed eight tackles in the game, and they cannot afford that in this one.

Final Troy-Kansas State Prediction & Pick

The last time Troy lost a game was on September 17 2022 to Appalachian State. In that time, they have flexed a dominant defense and powerful run game. They will face a solid front seven from Kansas State in this one, and an offense that ran the ball well and has Will Howard.

Both teams are going to try to run the ball and run it well in this one. With the new clock rules, the game should move quickly. Troy may not score a ton of points in this game, but Gunnar Watson and Kimani Vidal will provide enough big plays to score at least 14 points. That means Kansas State would need to score 31 to cover the spread. Troy allowed 32 points in their last loss but did not allow more than 28 in any other game last year. With that, take Troy and the points.

Final Troy-Kansas State Prediction & Pick: Troy +16.5 (-110)