The UFC 291 Main Card rolls on from Salt Lake City as we bring you another prediction and pick for this next bout in the Lightweight (155 lb) Division. UFC legend Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson will take on the always-game Bobby “King” Green. Anything can happen with these two in the cage. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ferguson-Green prediction and pick.
Tony Ferguson is 26-8 in his fighting career and has gone 15-6 during his storied UFC career. After being at the top of his game in 2020 and fighting Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira, Ferguson finds himself amidst a five-fight losing streak. Ferguson believes that now is his prime and he's ready to prove it against Bobby Green. Ferguson stands 5'11” with a 76.5-inch reach.
Bobby Green is 29-14-1 as a professional fighter and has gone 10-9-1-1 in his UFC tenure. Green is 2-2-1 in his last five fights with consecutive victories over Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast, followed by consecutive losses to Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober. Green's last fight with Jared Gordon was ruled a ‘No Contest' due to a clash of heads. Green will look to get back in the winning column against Ferguson. He stands 5'10” with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 291 Odds: Tony Ferguson-Bobby Green Odds
Tony Ferguson: +300
Bobby Green: -430
Over (2.5) rounds: -136
Under (2.5) rounds: +108
How to Watch Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
TV: ESPN+ Pay-Per-View
Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Tony Ferguson Will Win
It's been tough to see Tony Feguson lose his last five fights after such a dominant run. The loss to Michael Chandler was particularly brutal, but he had a better showing against Nate Diaz. The reality is that Tony Ferguson will have to be a different fighter than he has his whole career if he wants to elongate his career. He's battled some issues outside of the octagon and will have to be fully-focused in there to get the win. He's faced the much tougher competition over the years and he's hoping his experience can make a difference against Green.
Tony Ferguson will have to focus on being defensive in this fight and not absorbing too much damage. If he decides to march forward, each shots, and make this a blood bath, he's likely to get knocked out in the process. Ferguson should stay on the outside and pepper Green with jabs and lead leg kicks. He'll always be a serious submission threat, so don't be surprised if Ferguson goes for something off of his back.
Why Bobby Green Will Win
Bobby Green was amped-up after his last fight ended in a ‘No Contest' and demanded his winnings from the bout. He was doing well against Jared Gordon, but there's no telling how the rest of the fight would have gone had it not been stopped. Still, Green will be additionally motivated to find a more definitive result in this upcoming fight. A veteran of the sport himself, Bobby Green fights with a very youthful spirit and loves to stand and bang with his opponents. He's got great hands and lands with power and accuracy. In the pocket, Green uses a ton of head movement and is generally difficult to hit. Look for him to put his boxing on display if he can open up against Ferguson.
Bobby Green is also an underrated wrestler and will be very difficult for Ferguson to bring down if he decides to shoot. Green should look to avoid the clinch as Ferguson does his best work from there. He'll also be dealing with a reach disadvantage, so it'll be crucial for Bobby Green to slip inside and get his shots off. On the ground, he should look to stand up immediately and walk away from any jiu-jitsu exchanges. He's more than skilled on the feet and will want to keep this fight within his own realm.
Final Tony Ferguson-Bobby Green Prediction & Pick
Fans have been sticking by Ferguson's side through his recent struggles but reality may be setting in as he eyes a possible sixth-straight loss. Fighting Bobby Green will certainly be a step down from the best fighters in the division, but Ferguson struggled against a similar striker in Nate Diaz. We haven't seen El Cucuy look like himself since the Chandler fight and it's reflecting in the betting odds.
With Bobby Green this big a favorite, it's hard to side against him. Ferguson isn't eating punches well anymore and he seems to be a step slower than previous versions. It's never a good idea to count Tony Ferguson out, but Bobby Green's activity may be too much in this one.
Final Tony Ferguson-Bobby Green Prediction & Pick: Bobby Green (-430); Wins in Round 3 (+1000)