We’re back for another prediction and pick for UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan as the Main Card keeps rolling on from Austin, Texas. Our next bout takes place in the Lightweight (155) Division and features two warriors as Clay “The Carpenter” Guida goes up against Brazil’s Joaquim Silva. You won’t want to blink during this one! Check out our UFC odds series for our Guida-Silva prediction and pick.
Clay Guida (38-23) has an 18-17 record in the UFC since debuting back in 2006. He’s one of the most recognizable figures in the sport and fans still see no end in site to his exciting career. Guida has gone 3-3 in his last six fights and has alternated wins and losses. His last win came against Scott Holtzman and he lost his last bout to Rafa Garcia via unanimous decision. He’ll look for win number 19 as he takes on Silva. Guida stands 5’7″ with a 70-inch reach.
Joaquim Silva (12-4) has a 5-4 record in the UFC since 2015. After seeing some success to start his career, Silva has gone 2-4 in his last six fights while getting TKO-finished in three of those. His most recent fight was a TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan, so he’ll be looking to bounce back and grab a win over the veteran Guida. Silva stands 5’8″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Austin Odds: Clay Guida-Joaquim Silva Odds
Clay Guida: +270
Joaquim Silva: -355
Over 2.5 rounds: +112
Under 2.5 rounds: -142
How to Watch Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Clay Guida Will Win
Clay Guida will always be a fan favorite for what he’s done in the octagon up to this point, but his continued showings in the cage gather him new fans every time he puts the gloves on. It’s hard to imagine what keeps him going, but Guida returns to the octagon each time with unmatched energy and a willingness to bang with any opponent. He had that mindset during his last fight but came up short – don’t be surprised if we see a different approach from him as he takes on a skilled Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner.
Clay Guida does his best work when he blitzes forward and engages his opponent right away. His approach doesn’t always work in his favor against accurate strikers, but Guida has a tendency to keep pressing forward even when he’s been knocked down multiple times. If he can grab a hold of Silva, he can look to wrestle him along the fence and bring him down into bottom position. Guida is a very sound wrestler and he has every ability to control the exchanges on the mat. With his age, however, he’ll need to preserve his chin and play it smart throughout this fight.
Why Joaquim Silva Will Win
Joaquim Silva fights with a “kill or be killed” approach and his last five fights have all ended in KO/TKO finishes. He was able to notch two of those over Jared Gordon and Jesse Ronson, but was on the wrong end of the other three. His most recent bout was a loss to Arman Tsarukyan, but he’ll have confidence knowing he’s been facing the better competition over the last 2 years. Silva has tremendous power for his size and will easily be able to shut the lights out if he can land clean. If this turns into a gritty three-round fight, Silva will have to find a way to get Guida out of there.
While his background is rooted in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Silva often prefers to stand and trade with his opponents. He generates a lot of power with his hooks and uppercuts and if Guida gets him in too close, he could eat some elbows on the way in. Silva has three submission wins to his name and could easily search for a guillotine with the way Guida shoots for takedowns. Either way, we can expect him to go full speed from the opening horn as he tries to finish this fight quickly.
Final Clay Guida-Joaquim Silva Prediction & Pick
Anytime Clay Guida is stepping inside the cage, UFC fans have to tune in to see one of the most exciting fighters in the sport. This time will be no different and I fully expect Clay Guida to fight with the same motor he’s had his whole career. If he can push a fast pace and protect himself from incoming shots, he could very well drag this on for three rounds and get the decision win.
However, Joaquim Silva will be chasing the finish and if Guida’s not careful, he’ll likely get it. Still, it’s interesting seeing the runs both fighters are on and it’s actually Guida with a bit more momentum on his side. For our prediction, let’s take a chance on the underdog here as Clay Guida grinds out a tough decision win.
Final Clay Guida-Joaquim Silva Prediction & Pick: Clay Guida (+270)
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