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With the news that Shōgun star Hiroyuki Sanada has signed a deal to reprise his role as the cunning strategist Lord Yoshii Toranaga, plans could be in motion for a second season, according to Deadline.
The fact that the source, James Clavell's 1975 novel of the same name, is just one book isn't an issue. After all, Toranaga is based on the actual historical figure Tokugawa Ieyasu. And his story didn't end with beheading a subordinate. In fact, since both the series and the novel (and the 1980 series) didn't even get to the Battle of Sekigahara, one of the most decisive battles in Japanese history, season two could start with that.
If you remember, the 10th and final episode of Shōgun's first season ended with Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis) raising the foundations of his ship, the Erasmus. Toranaga's plan is to let Anjin build his ship — since he did order him to build him a navy — and then burn it, the way he did with the Erasmus. The warlord believes it's Blackthorne's fate to never leave Japan. I guess in his proactive mind, he should give destiny a little bit of a nudge.
While the Shōgun writers no longer have to be bound to faithfully (as much as they can) follow the book, they can take this story however they want. But I think it's easier if they just follow Tokugawa's history. Obviously, they can take artistic liberties but with Sanada on board (and most likely keeping his executive producer role and de facto cultural expert), he would probably prefer they don't stray too much from the acceptable narrative.
So let's say they follow history. The biggest storyline is still the Battle of Sekigahara. It even loomed over the first season and Toranaga's vision of it was show in the last episode.
With that said, let's take a step back and check on who's still in the show, the characters who are left standing.
Toranaga's side
On Toranaga's side, there's Blackthorne. Since he's building his navy, he should still be his advisor. Hopefully, his Japanese has improved by the time we get to the second season. Muraji (Yasunari Takeshima) can tutor him.
Then there's Buntaro (Shinnosuke Abe), Lady Mariko's widower. He and Blackthorne are on a truce of sorts. With his father Hiromatsu's (Tokuma Nishioka) death, he could also be part of the Toranaga's circle. Then there's Omi/Tonomoto Akinao (Hiroto Kanai), Yabushige's (Tadanobu Asano) nephew and presumptive heir. He doesn't exactly have a relationship with Toranaga.
While Kiri no Kata (Yoriko Doguchi), Toranaga's first wife, didn't have a lot of scenes in the first season, maybe she would in the second. His younger consort Shizu no Kata (Mako Fujimoto), who just gave birth to Toranaga's son, could also play a bigger role. There's also Gin (Yuko Miyamoto), the tea house proprietor. I'm placing her under Toranaga's banner since she just received land in Edo from him to build a much bigger willow world — or maybe even an entire pleasure district.
Speaking of the tea house, its most valuable employee Kiku (Yuka Kouri) could also play a larger role in the next season.
The Regents
Toranaga may have outwitted Ishido (Takehiro Hira), but he's only been slightly defanged. He and Ochiba (Fumi Nikaido) will have to have their own reckoning. And then there's The Heir, Yaechiyo (Sen Mars). The writers could introduce a time skip so he's older and will have more of a role in the next season.
The only regent who was murdered in the first season is Sugiyama. Ishido and Ochiba replaced him with Ito (Eisuke Sasai). The Christian daimyos are still there, Kiyama (Hiromoto Ida) and Ohno (Takeshi Kurokawa). Then there's Toranaga's half-brother who was offered a seat for betraying him, Saeki Nobutatsu (Takeshi Kurokawa).
The Europeans
We can't forget the presence of the Europeans. Father Visitor Dell'Acqua (Paulino Nunes) is still in Japan and still has a mission to fulfill. Father Martin Alvito (Tommy Bastow) and Blackthorne also have an uneasy truce after he arranged the Englishman's release at Mariko's behest. It remains to be seen if he ends up being a player in Toranaga's court.
Vasco Rodrigues (Nestor Carbonell) is also still in Japan. While he may not have love for the church, neither does he have one for the Japanese. Ferreira (Louis Ferreira), the captain of the Black Ship, is stranded in the country without a permit from the Regents.
For now, these are the characters still in play.
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What happens in the second season of Shōgun?
I don't think they're going to start with the actual Battle of Sekigahara. They'll most likely do a recap of where the characters currently are. I also don't think the writers are going to opt for a time skip.
If Shōgun's second season has the same number of episodes, I think the battle would be at the end. So the nine episodes would be about a more frenzied preparation for Sekigahara.
Since Ochiba has essentially turned against Ishido, they would have to have their own reckoning. Remember that before Mariko's death, they were engaged. However, Ochiba sent a secret message to Toranaga's wife before they left Osaka Castle. The message was that she was withdrawing her support from Ishido.
As to how that plays out in Osaka, she could say that she's merely hedging her bets, that she couldn't be seen favoring one lord over another. She'll know how to play Ishido; she's quite the strategist herself. Ishido no longer controls the council and Kiyama and Ohno don't seem to be his allies any more.
This buys time for Toranaga, and he needs it. He no longer has the benefit of the counsel of his oldest and most trusted friend, Hiromatsu. Mariko has done her duty and her sacrifice made it possible for Ochiba's change of heart. And for all of Yabushige's deceit, he was a very experienced soldier, but he's dead, too.
So Toranaga has the very difficult task of rebuilding his own council. However, he still has Muraji. He's always been loyal to his lord. And there's always Blackthorne, but his loyalty to Toranaga has always been through Mariko and to a certain extent, Fuji (Moeka Hoshi). And both are gone.
There's still Buntaro and Omi. Buntaro's still grieving both his father Hiromatsu and his wife Mariko. This is a man without anything to lose. Or to live for — except his service to the lord.
Omi is on the cusp of getting everything he's ever wanted. As Yabushige's heir, he stands to inherit everything his uncle owned. However, it's Toranaga's to distribute as he wills. He's still a good strategist, probably the best on their side after Toranaga so his lord will most likely have use for him.
As I mentioned earlier, if Shōgun's second season's last episode is its version of the Battle of Sekigahara, Osaka Castle and Ajiro will have nine episodes to get to the finale. Nine episodes for Ochiba and Ishido to figure out how their alliance works and for Toranaga to replenish both his council and his troops.
The final standoff, logically and historically speaking if the final episode really is Sekigahara, will be between Toranaga and Ishido. However, if the writers decide that the second season is the last, the battle may not be the final episode. If that's the case, then in this version, the standoff would be between Toranaga and Ochiba.
Either way, the lord of Kantō will become Shōgun. Just one request: more sword fights.
Shōgun is streaming on FX, Hulu and Disney+.
