The 2022 World Cup is now down to its final four. On Wednesday, December 14, at 2:00 pm EST, Kylian Mbappe and France, fresh off a dramatic victory over their rivals, England, will take on the Cinderella story of the tournament, Morocco, who shockingly upset Portugal to make it to the semifinals, further than any African team in history. Now, it’s time to continue our World Cup odds series with a France-Morocco prediction and pick!
France played a thriller against England and needed a missed penalty by Harry Kane and some questionable officiating to move on. Manager Didier Deschamps has to be thrilled, though, that while England put the clamps on Mbappe, Aurélien Tchouameni and Olivier Giroud stepped up when it mattered most. As for Morocco, what else can you say? Their dogged defense, timely scoring, and a little bit of magic have combined to make them the most unlikely — yet possibly most dangerous — team left in this tournament.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why France could win, how Morocco could win, and then make our picks for this quarterfinals showdown.
Here are the France vs. Morocco World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: France-Morocco Odds
France: -460
Morocco: +330
Over 2.5 Goals: +128
Under 2.5 Goals: -156
Why France Will Beat Morocco
France will beat Morocco because they are frickin’ France! They are the defending champions and one of the best three or four soccer-playing nations in the world. They also have way more talent on the roster that they left at home than Morocco has on its miraculous 2022 World Cup squad. Oh yeah, and they have the best player in the world right now in Kylian Mbappe.
And if this game doesn’t look like you playing against your little brother in FIFA at times, France could be in trouble.
Les Bleus have to overwhelm Morocco with its incredible offensive talent. Last World Cup, it was Olivier Giroud making thankless but dangerous runs while Mbappe and Antione Griezmann got the glory. This year, it’s Griezmann doing the same for Mbappe and Giroud. That needs to continue in this game, and the French attackers have to make their shots count against the Moroccan keeper, Bono, who is having an incredible tournament.
France needs to score early here and keep their foot on the gas in the first half. If they can put in multiple goals early, the game will be over early. If not, there could be trouble.
Why Morocco Will Beat France
The Moroccan formula for winning World Cup games is simple but not easy. They stay compact and organized in defense, get some key saves from their (soon-to-be Manchester United?) goalkeeper, Bounou, and make their attacks count. Against Portugal, despite a 12-9 difference in shots in favor of the Portuguese, Morocco put three on target, as many as their opponents.
There isn’t much more to the Morocco plan of attack than that. They need to defend like mad against France and hope they can catch the inexperienced French backline or the sometimes-shaky keeper and captain, Hugo Lloris, napping.
Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi and Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech also have to play well and be the focal points of the Morocco attack down the right side. If they can do that and the team can keep it close into the second half, anything can happen.
A Morocco win seems unlikely on paper, but so did victories over Spain and Portugal. If the African nation can keep that energy in the semifinals, they can make even more history and be the first team from their region to ever make a World Cup Final.
Final France-Morocco Prediction & Pick
What Morocco has done this World Cup is not only historic, it’s admirable as well. But winning like they do every match by playing killer defense, getting huge saves, and converting one of two or three chances is just incredibly hard to sustain game after game. At some point, the chance doesn’t fall, the ball takes a weird bounce, a call goes against you, and that’s the ballgame.
If France wins this, it will be historic as well. They will be the first defending champion to get back to the finals since Brazil in 1998 and be in position to become the first repeat World Cup champions since Brazil in 1962.
When we’re talking about soccer history, I’ll take France over Morocco every time. That’s why the French win this one comfortably, 3-1.
Final France-Morocco Prediction & Pick: France (-460); Over 2.5 goals (+124)
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