With the All-Star break upon us, it is time to look at the end-of-season awards, as managers vie for playoff spots and recognition at the end of the year. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a 2024 NL Manager of the Year prediction and pick.

Winning manager of the year is no small feat for a manager. In general, his team must make the playoffs. Only 10 of the 82 times this award has been given has it gone to a manager whose team did not make the playoffs, with only once the team is below .500. That was in 2006 when Joe Girardi won it for the Marlins.

Further, 90 wins is a magic number. Of the last 24 managers to win the award, not counting the Covid season in which only 60 games were played, only three times has the manager's team finished below 9- wins. Still, it does not go to the best team. Of the 82 times this has been awarded, only 12 of the teams have finished with over 100 wins. The defending champion in the NL was one of the managers without 90 wins, as Skip Schumaker won the award with the Marlins, but a repeat will not be happening this year.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: 2024 NL Manager of the Year

Pat Murphy: +100

Rob Thomson: +125

Carlos Mendoza: +1700

Mike Shildt: +1700

Oliver Marmol: +1700

Derek Shelton: +6000

Bob Melvin: +10000

Brian Snitker: +10000

Dave Roberts: +10000

David Bell: +10000

Torey Lovullo: +10000

Favorites To Win 2024 NL Manager of the Year

The odds on favorite to win the award this year is Pat Murphy. The Milwaukee Brewers had a preseason win total of just 77.5 games, with the under being slightly favored. Currently, the Brewers lead the NL Central and are on pace for 92 wins. They were projected to get fourth in the division and an NL Central title should put Murphy in the driver's seat for the award. Further, he has done this with a fairly young roster. While 32-year-old Christian Yelich is still a major factor, they are led offensively by Willy Adames and William Contreras. He has gotten the most out of the Phillies cast off, Rhys Hoskins, and developed both Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang.  All the while, Murphy has done this after the Brewers lost Corbin Burnes in the off-season and he is in his first year as the manager.

Sitting second in odds is the Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson. While the Phillies were projected to be a playoff team, unlike the Brewers, they were projected as a distant second behind the Braves. The Phillies lead the NL East by 8.5 games right now and are on pace for 105 wins. That would most likely give them the top spot in the NL playoffs. It is also 15 games over their preseason win total. Further, Thomson has managed through a slew of injuries. Trea Turner missed six weeks of the year, while JT Realmuto has been out since June 9. Further, both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have missed time this year.

Sleepers To Win 2024 NL Manager of the Year

While there are two clear favorites, a late playoff push could sneak another manager into the conversation. That starts with Oliver Marmol. The St. Louis Cardinals manager is in his first year and is currently the youngest manager in baseball. The Cardinals did have a pre-season win total of 84.5 games this year though, and were expected to contend for the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs. Still, Marmol currently has the Cardinals in a playoff position, sitting in a wild-card spot. Still, Marmol would have to get the Cardinals to a division crown to win the award. He is currently just 1-6 against Milwaukee, and if they win the division, he will not pass Pat Murphy on ballots.

A team currently on the outside looking in is the San Diego Padres. The Padres are led by Mike Shildt. They were projected at 83.5 wins this year, and just outside of the playoff picture. Further, Shildt lost his slugger in Juan Soto but still is guiding one of the best offensive units in all of baseball. They would need a big second half to have Shlidt win though. First, they would need to slip into a playoff spot and see a team like the Phillies stumble. Still, he could almost assure the award if they can catch the Dodgers. This year, Shildt has been solid against their rival. They have won five of eight over the Dodgers but will need to break out after losing six of their last seven.

Final 2024 NL Manager of the Year Prediction and Pick

This award is truly a two-man race, barring an amazing second half by the Cardinals or Padres. Still, two things separate the two managers. First, Pat Murphy is leading a team to the playoffs that was expected to miss. Second, while the Phillies were projected second in their division, they are a direct beneficiary of the Ronald Acuna Jr. season-ending injury for the Braves. While Rob Thomson has done a great job this year, the award will be going to Pat Murphy.

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Final 2024 NL Manager of the Year Prediction and Pick: Pat Murphy (+100)