It's coming down to the wire in the Land of Mediocrity, aka the NFC South. Three teams, none of which has a winning record entering Week 18, still have a chance to win the division and earn a home playoff game. So will it be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons, or the New Orleans Saints atop the standings by the end of the NFL's regular season?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have far and away the easiest path at the divisional crown. They need no assistance from other teams in their pursuit. It's win and in for Todd Bowles' team. Plus, the team standing in the way of the “win” part is the Carolina Panthers, the NFL's worst team by a comfortable margin.

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As for the Falcons and Saints, they will be facing off against one another in the regular season finale. A win for either team, coupled with a Bucs loss, would be enough to win the division. For Atlanta, it's NFC South or bust, whereas New Orleans can earn a wild card berth with a win, a Seattle Seahawks loss/tie, and a Green Bay Packers loss/tie.

With that all laid out, what reason is there to believe the Saints will end up hosting a playoff game at the Superdome next week? Let's run through three of them below.

New Orleans' home field advantage

Saints general manager Mickey Loomis mentioned this week his expectation that fans would create a raucous environment in Week 18's home game, just as they always do. And that might end up being the difference in the Falcons-Saints matchup.

New Orleans Saints GM Mickey Loomis and speech bubble “Set The Tone” and images of Derek Carr and Cameron Jordan in background on each side of Loomis.

It's not as if Dennis Allen's team has been a juggernaut in home games in 2023. The Saints have a winning record in the Superdome…barely. But four wins is more than three losses, so, home field advantage.

On a related note, the Falcons have struggled away from their home turf. Arthur Smith's team is 2-6 in games not taking place in Atlanta. The two wins? A 16-13 victory over the Bucs and a 13-8 win over the Tim Boyle-led New York Jets. Enough said there.

The quarterback battle

Saints fans probably aren't thrilled with Derek Carr, but the fact of that matter is, he's been more or less what he's always been as an NFL passer. Will he carry a team to a Super Bowl victory? No, not likely. But he can do enough to be a part of an average/slightly-above offense.

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New Orleans has won three of its last four games, and across that stretch, Carr has thrown 10 touchdowns to two interceptions, while completing nearly 75% of his passes. He isn't the team's biggest issue.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have a fleet of flashy cars that they keep locked up in the garage. The trio of first round picks Atlanta boasts, TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, and RB Bijan Robinson, have failed to take this offense to the next level.

Arthur Smith's play-calling and offensive philosophy is certainly an issue here. Another issue? The caliber of play provided at quarterback by Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.

You don't have to be a Derek Carr-truther to see he is better than that combo, and gives the Saints a better chance on Sunday.

Panthers handle their business(?)

Saints over Falcons is the easier of two necessary outcomes to predict. But for the Saints to clinch the NFC South, they also need the Panthers to knock off the Buccaneers. How's that going to happen?

(thinking….thinking….)

Ok, let's give this a shot.

For one, Tampa Bay is knocked up at some key positions of offense. Notable, QB Baker Mayfield and left tackle Tristan Wirfs  have carried questionable designations throughout this week's practices. So too has third wideout Trey Palmer.

Panthers' Bryce Young looking serious.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have put two competitive efforts on the field in three weeks. They knocked off the Falcons in Week 15 and gave the Packers a game in Week 16 before losing 33-30 in QB Bryce Young's first 300-yard passing game as a pro. (The less said about Week 17's 26-0 no-show against the Jacksonville Jaguars here, the better.)

Perhaps the ignominy of earning but not being able to make the number-one pick in the 2024 NFL draft will light a Week 18 fire under the Panthers. Maybe they want to take attention off of their buffoon owner throwing drinks at fans.

However it happens, the Panthers can find a way to play spoiler in their season finale, and hand the NFC South to the Saints. Easy as pie.