The Miami Heat are a miracle in progress in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. They were not even supposed to get past the first round against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, but here they are, in the middle of their preparation for the 2023 NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. Beating the Nuggets is going to be easier said than done, but you can say the same about Denver's chances of taking care of business versus pesky Miami. With that said, here are three reasons why you would not want to lay money against Jimmy Butler and the Heat.
Here are the Heat-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Do you really want to bet against Jimmy Butler?
This is a question bettors will have to seriously ask themselves if they are thinking that the Nuggets will steamroll the Heat in the 2023 NBA Finals. Sure, the experts will lay out all the reasons why Denver is rightfully the heavy favorite to crush the Heat. But they also did that in the first, second, and third rounds of the postseason when most of them thought that the Milwaukee Bucks, the New York Knicks, and the Boston Celtics will not just win but dominate Miami only for the Heat to flip the table and make the same experts recalibrate their view of Erik Spoelstra's squad.
After defying the odds and shocking the field for three rounds in a row, a stretch that saw them take down the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the Eastern Conference, somehow the Heat are back to being underdogs again, this time versus the Nuggets. It's not surprising. The surprise, however, can be provided by the Heat themselves, as they have done so over and over again in the playoffs.
Denver is a huge challenge and will be the toughest test for the Heat, at least on paper, but after seeing Miami transform from a team that lost to the Atlanta Hawks in the Play-in Tournament and trailed the Chicago Bulls late in the next game into a juggernaut that sent Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, and Jayson Tatum home in succession, who's to say that Butler will not find a way to galvanize his team in the NBA Finals and upend the team from Mile High City?
Miami thrives best as an underdog
This sounds like a cliche, but after three rounds in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, Jimmy Butler and the Heat have made it clear that odds don't matter to them. If anything, defying long odds is a major ingredient of the fuel that's been powering them in the postseason. The pressure is on the Nuggets, and Miami will hope that Jokic and company will buckle under it. As for the Heat, there's definitely going to be pressure since they've already gotten this far in the playoffs, but that can be negated by the comfort that their underdog label brings them. With most people expecting the Nuggets to win, Miami doesn't have a crazy hype to live up to in the NBA Finals.
Everyone can get hot
Back in the regular season, the Heat shot just 34.4 percent from behind the arc. Their outside shooting was not as efficient of a weapon as it has been for the team since the start of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. After three rounds, the Heat have shot 39.0 percent from deep. It's impressive how the Heat have managed to get better at shooting the ball from long range despite missing Tyler Herro for the most part of the playoffs. Credit goes to the likes of Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent, who have all gotten more accurate with their outside sniping.
Robinson hit just 32.8 percent of his 3-point attempts in the regular season but is now making 44.6 percent in the playoffs. Martin went from 35.6 percent to 43.8 percent, while Vincents' splits jumped from 33.4 percent to 39.0 percent. You would think that their collective improvement in terms of efficiency is because of the smaller sample size in shots taken, but each of them is actually taking more 3-pointers in the playoffs than they did average in the regular season.
Their excellent outside shooting in the playoffs is going to be difficult to sustain because regression is always a threat for hot-shooting teams. But there's also Game 4 in the Eastern Conference Finals in which the Heat shot just 25 percent from deep and looked as though they finally were on a slump only for them to shoot an incredible 45.7 percent from the 3-point area the rest of the way in the series.
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